青藏高原臭氧低谷的加深及其可能的影响

DEEPENING OF OZONE VALLEY OVER TIBETAN PLATEAU AND ITS POSSIBLE INFLUENCES

摘要: 通过分析TOMS(1979～1992)资料发现:(1)青藏高原的臭氧不仅存在递减趋势,而且是一个递减的强中心,这个递减的强中心是同纬度地区3个递减中心之一;(2)夏季青藏高原臭氧低谷有加深的趋势,其递减率最大值为-0.336%/a;加深区域为29～33°N,78～94°E。另外,分析SAGE资料的结果表明:青藏高原臭氧递减的强中心的形成是由于其平流层下部臭氧异常减少造成的。根据研究结果的趋势估测:从1992年到2000年,夏季青藏高原紫外辐射增加大约为1.3%～2.3%,可能引起白内障发病率上升大约0.8%～1.4%,皮肤癌上升大约3.2%～5.4%。

Abstract: From the analysis of TOMS data sets(1979-1992),it is found that:(1)The total ozone over Tibetan Plateau is not only decreasing,but also a centero fozone decrease. The centeris one of three centers of ozone decrease at same latitude.(2)The summerozone valley over Tibetan Plateau is deepening,whose area is from 78°E to 94°E,from 29°N to 33°N,its maximumis -0.336% a-1.In addition,from the results of SAGE data,it shows that the center of ozone decrease over Tibetan Plateau results frommore rapid decrease of its ozone in lower stratosphere.Based on the trend from these results, it is estimated that:From 1992 to 2000,U V-B radiation over Tibetan Plateau will increase about 1.3% to 2.3%,there may be about 0.8%-1.4% increase in cataract, 3.2%-5.4% increase in skin cancer.