水文模式DHSVM与区域气候模式RegCM2/China嵌套模拟试验

NUMERICAL SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS BY NESTING HYDROLOGY MODEL DHSVM WITH REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL RegCM2/China

  • 摘要: 本研究在改进水文-土壤-植被模式DHSVM,用气候观测资料驱动DHSVM进行模拟试验的基础上,建立了区域气候模式RegCM2/China与水文模式DHSVM的嵌套系统,将区域气候模式对中国和东亚地区控制试验(目前气候情景)和敏感性试验(未来2×CO2气候情景)结果用双线性插值方法降尺度(downscaling)到滦河、桑干河流域的8个气象站点,然后再用数字高程模式DEM插值到DHSVM的细网格点,驱动水文模式进行嵌套模拟试验.试验结果表明,滦河、桑干河流域在未来大气中CO2浓度加倍情况下,地面气温呈一致的增加趋势,年平均气温增加2.8℃;两流域未来降水也呈增加趋势,滦河、桑干河流域年降水量分别增加6mm和46mm;两流域未来蒸发量有所增加,年均蒸发量增加29mm;未来滦河流域年径流深减少27mm,流量减少14.72×108m3,桑干河流域径流深增加26mm,流量增加12.22×108m3,两流域合计,流量减少2.5×108m3;未来滦河、桑干河流域径流深趋向一致,分别为74和71mm,约为全国目前平均径流深284mm的1/4.可见,两流域未来总体上仍呈现暖干化趋势.本研究发展的嵌套模式系统具有一定的预测能力,而且通过参数移植,可应用于中国其他流域.

     

    Abstract: Based on improvement of the distributed hydrology-soil-veg etation model DHSVM and its application to North China,a nested regional climatic-hydrologic model system is developed by connecting DHSVM with RegCM2/China.The simulated climate scenarios,including control and 2×CO2 outputs,are downscaled to 8 stations in Luanhe River and Sanggan River Basins to drive the hydrology model.According to simulation results,under double CO2 conditions,temperature and evapot ranspiration will rise 2.8 and 29 mm,respectively;precipitation also increases but with different values for each basin,6 mm for Luanhe River while 46mm for Sanggan River;runoff change for the two basins is different too,27 mm decrease for Luanhe River Basin while 26 mm increase for Sanggan River Basin.As a result,the runoff in future for Luanhe River Basin and Sang gan River Basin is 74 mm and 71 mm,respectively,which is approximately a quarter of mean annual runoff(284 mm)of the whole country.Total streamf low for the two basins will decrease about 2.5×108m3.All these indicate that the warm and dry trend will continue in the two river basins under double CO2 scenarios.The nested model system,with both climatic and hydrologic prediction ability,could also be applied to other basins in China by parameter adjustment.

     

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