2001年8月初上海强暴雨中尺度对流系统的数值模拟研究

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OF SHANGHAI RAINSTORMS IN AUGUST 2001

摘要: 利用NCEP的ETA模式对2001年8月5～6日导致上海地区产生大暴雨的中尺度对流系统的发生发展过程进行了数值模拟。模拟结果基本再现了对流云团加强合并形成中尺度对流系统的过程,所模拟的降水分布、最大降水中心位置与实测结果基本一致。模拟结果还显示其中的一个中尺度对流系统是由于位于其西南部的一支低空急流的直接流入才发展起来的。

Abstract: Based on the NCEP-ETA numerical simulation, the development of a mesoscale convective system causing 2001 Shanghai rainstorms is investigated.The modeling results fundamentally reproduce the growing processes of a mesoscale convective system, the simulation indicates that the mesoscale convective system has not been formed until the inflow of a low-level jet.Furthermore, the simulating rainf all distribution and location of the maximal precipitation are basically consistent with the observation.