“98.7”暴雨β中尺度低涡生成发展结构演变:双向四重嵌套网格模拟

STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION OF THE GENESIS AND DEVELOPMENT ON MESO-β VORTEX FOR THE “98.7” HEAVY RAINFALL:SIMULATION OF TWO WAYS WITH QUARTET NESTED GRID

  • 摘要: 用非静力中尺度模式MM5.V3全物理湿过程和双向四重嵌套网格技术及四维资料同化分析张弛方法,对1998年7月20~22日(简称“98.7”)鄂东武汉沿江地区特大暴雨进行了36h数值模拟,结果大大改进了原二重和三重嵌套网格的模拟,特别是水平分辨率为2km的嵌套子域D04能更正确地模拟出暴雨的落区及雨强中心,进而揭示了强暴雨β中尺度系统发生和发展的结构及演变.其主要结果包括:(1)β中尺度切变线在鄂东沿江低空强烈发展及辐合中心的出现与其β中尺度低涡的形成和发展直接关联.(2)β中尺度切变线强烈发展的垂直结构:强辐合层和强辐散层复式迭置并与强上升运动耦合发展;强涡度层和强位涡度层与强辐合层互伴发展;低空湿位温中心与中空饱和水汽带共存.(3)β中尺度低涡生成的垂直结构:散度和上升运动均呈双支柱状发展;涡度和位涡度均呈单支柱状发展;高湿能柱呈双支耦合发展,水汽通道呈阶梯斜升状.(4)β中尺度低涡发展的垂直结构:V字型散度柱和上升运动柱互耦发展;涡度和位涡度呈双支柱状;双支高湿能柱强烈发展,阶梯斜升水汽通道变宽增厚.至此低涡发展达最强,其结构具有典型性.模拟结果还指出,发展时空分辨率更高的多重嵌套网格模拟技术和应用四维资料同化方法,将有助于更细致的了解β中尺度强对流系统发生和发展的结构及其演变,并能进一步提高对幕雨落区及雨强的预报水平.

     

    Abstract: During 20-22 July 1998("98.7"),an abrupt extraordinary heavy rainfall occurred in the eastern and southwestern parts of Hubei Province,especially in Wuhan periphery,which is seldom in the Changjiang River basin.Observational analyses indicate this event was in close relationship with the short wave trough at 500 hPa and a low vortex with shear line at 700 hPa as well as successive generating and developing of βMCS along the shear line.This event has successfully simulated for 36 hours using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 3(MM5.V3).This MM5.V3 includes full moist physics and two ways with quartet nest grid as well as FDDA of analysis nudging.The results pronouncedly improved previous simulation of the two-and-triple nest grid,especially,the nest subdomain D04 with 2 km horizontal resolution was able to simulate correct heavy rainfall area and raininess,further revealed the structures and evolution of the genesis and development on meso-β systems producing intense heavy rainfall.The main results include:(1)The genesis and development on a meso-β low vortex not only were in directly relationship with intense development of a meso-β low-level shear line along the Changjiang River in the east Hubei and the occurrence of a convergence center,but also in close relationship with the fozmation,development and maintenance of a thick southwest lowlevel jet stream;(2)The structural vertically features of the intense development on the meso-a shear line showed that the intense convergence and divergence layers were reiteration and coupling development with intense ascending motion,while the intense vorticity and potential vorticity as well as convergence layers were interadjoint,the moist potential temperature center in low levels and the saturated vapor belt in middle levels were in coexistence; (3) The structural vertically features of the genesis on the meso-β low vortex indicated that the divergence and ascending motion displayed double-branch column development,the vorticity and potential vorticity displayed one branch column development,the high moist energy column displayed double branches coupling development,the moisture channel displayed step slantwise ascending; (4)The structural vertically features of the development on the meso-β low vortex showed that the letterV typical columns of the divergence and ascending motion merged intercoupling development,the vorticity and potential vorticity were double branch column,the double branch high moist energy column intensely developed,the step slantwise ascending moisture channel changed into wider and deeper.Up to this stage the development of the low vortex reached the most intension,while this structure was possessed of the typicality.After this stage,the structural evolution of the low vortex showed the vertical circulation and ascending motion had been weakening,in the mean while,interadjoint the vorticity and potential vorticity double branch column as well as the double branch high moist energy column and the step slantwise ascending moisture channel was also weakened.The results are in directly relationship with the weakening meso-β low vortex.The simulative results also indicated that the development of a multiple nest technology with high temporal and spatial resolution and the application of FDDA method will be helpful to understand more the structure and evolution of the genesis and development on the meso-β severe convective systems,while it will further enhance predictive capability for heavy rainfall area and raininess.

     

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