中国降水异常的特征分析
ANALYSES OF PRECIPITATION VARIATION HIERARCHY FOR SHORT-TIME CLIMATE IN CHINA
-
摘要: 异常降水直接影响着农业和其他生产活动.文中计算分析了中国160个测站的一些反映降水变化的常规统计量,认为这些统计量难以反映出降水异常的变化特征.文中从非线性动力学和统计学相结合的角度出发,分析了相隔1～20a间不同时间尺度的降水变率之间的关系,找到可以区分任意地区降水异常特点的特征参数,由此可进一步判断某个地区旱涝灾害发生的可能性以及强度的大小,为气候研究工作提供必要的依据.Abstract: Climate disasters often appear,especially abnormal rainfall.Normal statistical variables usually being mean values are gotten at a fixed time scale.Areas having the same one statistical variable behave very differently in precipitation course.Thus normal statistical variables can nearly reflect strong fluctuations of precipitation variation.In order to analyze unusual precipitation and search for its relationship on different time scale,we have used fifty years' monthly mean precipitation and analyzed the relative precipitation variation on different time scale from one to twenty years.By making use of random increments of climate series and calculating its high-ordered probability density function,we got hierarchy variables standing for precipitation variation on different time scale and different fluctuation.Through dimensional analysis,we concluded a relationship of hierarchy variables and found that its variety index could identify different preciptation pattern,and reflect strong fluctuations of precipitation variation series.We calculated the variety index of 160 areas all over China.Its value varied from minimum 0.38 to maximum 0.82.We also found that the values accord with actual precipitation variation series.This helps us to judge the possibility of drought and waterlog in an area.The relationship of hierarchy variables maybe helps us to develop short-time climate forecast ability.
-
-
么枕生,丁裕国.气候统计.北京:气象出版社,1990.200～300
[2] 刘式达,郑祖光,林振山.气候层次动力学初探.见:李崇银主编.大气科学和地球流体力学国家重点实验室研究专集(二)气候变化若干问题研究.北京:科学出版社,1992.1～6
[3] 刘式达,荣平平.气候序列的层次结构.气象学报,2000,58(1):110～114
[4] Emmanuel Leveque,Zhen-Su She.Cascade of structures and scaling expoments in a dynmical model of turbulence:measurements and comparison.Phys Rev E,1997,55(3):2789～2799
[5] 江静,钱永甫.南海地区降水的时空特征.气象学报,2000,58(1):60～69
[6] 马天健,何素兰.近40年我国东部地区旱涝变化特征.见:曹鸿兴,李月洪等主编.我国短期气候变化及其成因研究.北京:气象出版社,1996,33～42
[7] Zhen-Su She.Universal law of cascade of turbulent Fluctuations.Progres of theoretical physics,1998,130(Supplement):87～102
[8] 余振苏,苏卫东.湍流中的层次结构和标度律.力学进展,1999,29(3):298～303
[9] 何素兰,马天健.近40年我国降水及变率的分布特征.见:曹鸿兴,李月洪等主编.我国短期气候变化及其成因研究.北京:气象出版社,1996.25～32
[10] 詹道江,邹进上.我国可能最大暴雨洪水研究的进展,气象学报1986,44(4):473～481
计量
- 文章访问数: 1791
- HTML全文浏览量: 19
- PDF下载量: 2127
下载:
