热带西南季风对0214号热带气旋“黄蜂”的影响

INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL SOUTHWEST MONSOON ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VONGFONG (0214)

摘要: 采用中国数值预报创新基地最新开发的三维变分同化系统(Grapes3DVAR)的分析场为模式初值场,利用广州热带海洋气象研究所开发的南海热带气旋业务预报模式,在模拟试验(控制试验)的基础上,对强、弱热带西南季风作对比试验(异常试验)研究。试验结果表明:除环境引导气流外,“黄蜂”偏心结构变化引起的偏心运动变化对热带气旋移向、移速的变化起了一定的作用;西南季风对热带气旋“黄蜂”的动力结构、热力结构和移动路径都有一定的影响;热带西南季风通过改变热带气旋的不对称结构和削弱副热带高压西侧这两个途径,造成热带气旋路径右偏。

Abstract: Based on the simulation experiment (control experiment),comparing experiments (anomaly experiments) with stronger and weaker south west monsoon were investigated using an operating model for tropical cyclones (TCs) over the South China Sea developed by the Guang zhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology.Its initial field was formed by Grapes 3D Vassimilation system developed by the Chinese Numerical Forecast Innovation Base recently.