春季海温对中国夏季降水影响的诊断研究和预测试验
DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSES AND HINDCAST EXPERIMENTS OF SPRING SST ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CHINA
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摘要: 文中利用季降水异常集合的典型相关预测模式,以全球春季(3~5月)海温场作为因子场,对中国夏季降水场进行了诊断研究,并对1998,1999及2000年这几个典型的中国夏季降水进行了回报试验。结果表明,春季海温与中国夏季降水之间存在较好的关系,春季海温在较大程度上决定了中国夏季降水雨带及其分布类型。考虑面积因子的集合典型相关预测方案对中国夏季降水具有较强的回报能力,此模式不仅能诊断出降水场和海温场中一些比较典型的空间模态和时间变化规律,而且可以再现1998和2000年中国大部分地区的旱涝灾害。揭示了全球春季海温的异常变化在中国夏季(6~8月)降水异常中的作用。Abstract: Based on the ensemble canonical correlation prediction (E-CCP) model for seasonal precipitation anomaly,diagnostic analyses and hindcast experiments were made on summer (JJA) precipitation in China for thesety pical years,such as 1998,1999 and 2000,using global spring sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) as pre-dictor fields.The results show that the correlation between global spring (MAM) SSTA and summer precipitation in China is obvious.To a greatextent,MAMSSTAs determine the patterns of summer rainbelt in China.The ECCP scheme with an area-factor performs well in the forecasting of summer precipitation in China.It not only canmake out some typical space modes and their time changes in precipitation and SST field,but also canreproduce the drought/flood of summer in 1998 and 2000.