中国气候过渡带干旱化发展趋势与东亚夏季风、极涡活动相关研究

CORRELATION OF DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT TENDENCY ON CHINA’S CLIMATE TRANSITION ZONE AND ACTIVITY OF  EAST ASIA SUMMER MONSOON AND POLAR VORTEX

  • 摘要: 利用国家气候中心1961~2000年中国160个测站降水量和NCEP/NCAR全球再分析资料,采取线性趋势变化、相关和水汽输送等分析方法,揭示中国大陆40 a的年和季降水变化趋势显著区域的时空分布特征,探讨与东亚夏季风和极涡活动的某些相关。结果表明:(1)经内蒙古中东部、山西省、河南省、陕西省和甘肃省东部至湖北省西部、四川省西北部和重庆市年降水量线性下降趋势较显著(其中相当部分为中国的气候过渡带),并明显向东与华北大部、东北地区中南部、环渤海地区、山东省和江苏省北部线性下降较显著区连成一片,构成占中国国土面积约1/5的气候变化干旱化区域,其中20世纪90年代年平均降水量负距平为50~100 mm的面积约达90万km2,其季节变化主要为夏、秋两季降水锐减,长江中下游、东南部沿海和广东省大部年降水量线性上升趋势显著,其中江西省20世纪90年代年降水量正距平在200 mm以上;(2)20世纪90年代夏季1000~300 hPa水汽输送积分负距平区与中国40 a气候变化干旱化区域总体相吻合;(3)中国西部地区东部与华北、东北地区中南部、环渤海地区降水干旱化区域连成一片,原因是多方面的,文中初步揭示了与影响中国的东亚夏季风在30°N以北地区活动和太平洋区极涡强度指数自20世纪70年代前后减弱相关显著。

     

    Abstract: From 1961 to 2000 mean month reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR and 160 station's month precipitation data from National Climate Center (China) have been used, analyzed by methods of linear tendency variety, correlation and vapors transportation. The time-space distribution features of year's or seasons marking area of drought tendency of climate transition zone in China mainland, and the relationship between East Asian summer monsoon and polar vortex activity. The results demonstrate:(1) Year's precipitation linear tendency was notable descend from mid-east of Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Henan, eastern Shaanxi and Gansu to western Hubei, northwest Sichuan and Chongqing (among them include China climate transition zone), compose a climate drought area about 1/5 of China with remarkable descend area of China north, mid-south of northeast, around Bohai sea, Shandong and north of Jiangsu. In 1990's mean precipitation was 50-100 mm below normal in an area about 900,000 km2 precipitation decline sharply in summer and autumn. Year precipitation linear tendency remarkably raise in mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River, southeast inshore and Guangdong; (2) negative anomaly area of 1000-300 hPa vapor transportation in 1990's summer and 40 years climate drought area of China are similar;(3) Drought area connect with east of western China and north China, mid-south of northeast china, around Bohai sea, the reason is various. The correlation with weaken of activity at 30°N and its north of East Asia summer monsoon of influence China and Pacific polar vortex strength index from 1970's was revealed notablely.

     

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