Abstract:
In order to effectively utilize the analogue information of historical observati ons, some theoretical and technical problems of the analogue correction of error s (ACE) are further explored in this paper based on the previous studies on anal oguedynamical models. Analyses show that the ACE is the redevelopment of metho d s based on the analoguedeviation equation and analoguecorrection equation of e rrors. On the basis of such idea, a new scheme of dynamical analogue prediction allowing for multireferencestate updating (MRSU) has been developed. In this s cheme, when model integration proceeds to the period of analogue updating (PAU), multiple reference states are reselected and optimal forecast vectors are est i mated from multiforecasts produced by the analoguedynamical model using the hy perplane approximation method. Such a “selectionestimation" procedure is peri od ically repeated until the entire forecast is completed. The MRSU experiments of Lorenz model have shown that the MRSU is effective in reducing forecast errors a nd raising forecast skill, thus preliminarily confirming the application prospec t of ACE theory. Furthermore, in the conceptual flow chart of the MRSU, introduc ing the ACE into the complicated numerical model is equivalent to realize the fo recast process of analoguedynamical model without necessity to reestablish t he model equation.