大气环流对中国稻飞虱危害的影响及其预测

INFLUENCES OF ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ON THE OCCURRENCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF RICE PLANTHOPPER IN CHINA AND ITS OCCURRENCE AREA PREDICTION

  • 摘要: 稻飞虱是中国和许多亚洲国家水稻生产上最重要的害虫。文中通过对上一年1月至当年8月74项大气环流特征量构建所有不同时段的组合,全面分析了大气环流特征量与中国稻飞虱发生面积率的相关关系。筛选出了影响中国稻飞虱发生面积率的关键环流特征因子52项,其对中国稻飞虱发生影响的重要次序为副热带高压类→极涡类→槽类→其他类;影响的时段主要为当年7—8月,其次为上年6月至当年6月。其中,副热带高压类、极涡类关键环流因子分别有35项和12项,占全部关键环流特征因子的67%和23%,在很大程度上决定着中国稻飞虱发生的面积。确定的直接影响中国稻飞虱发生的关键环流特征因子有11项,其中6项较好地表征了中国稻飞虱发生面积率轻、偏轻、偏重、重4个级别的气候特征。用直接影响中国气候的关键环流特征因子建立了当年3—9月的中国稻飞虱发生面积率月预测模式,每月初可以制作预报。该模式历史拟合效果较好,对2003年中国稻飞虱发生面积率的外延预报准确率分别达85.6%、90.5%、90.5%、90.4%、90.9%、93.2%、96.3%。同时,本研究还利用1—11月稻区月降水量、平均气温、日照时数所构建的所有不同时段的组合,分析了关键环流特征因子与稻区生态气象条件、中国稻飞虱发生面积率之间的关系。结果表明:三者之间相关密切,这种关系表现为大气环流通过影响稻区日照、气温和降水的变化导致稻飞虱发生条件的灾变,进而影响稻飞虱发生面积率。

     

    Abstract: The rice planthopper is a major pest harming the rice in China and many Asian countries. Relationships between atmospheric circulation characteristic indices and ratios of the occurrence area of rice planthopper in China are fully analyzed using 74 atmospheric circulation characteristic indices in various time-periods within last January to August. 52 key atmospheric circulation characteristic factors influencing the ratio of the occurrence area are selected, their main influencing periods are July to August, and the next last June to June. The order of their influencing extent is successively subtropical high category, polar vortex category, trough category, and other index category. Among the 52 key atmospheric circulation characteristic factors, there are 35 subtropical high factors and 12 polar vortex factors, accounting for 67% and 23% of the total, respectively, and therefore the ratio of the occurrence area of rice planthopper is mainly determined by subtropical high and polar vortex factors. 11 key atmospheric circulation characteristic factor indices directly influencing the ratio of the occurrence area of rice planthopper are decided, among them 6 indices are obviously indicative of climate characteristics for four occurrence levels (1-4) of rice planthopper. 7 prediction models for ratios of the occurrence area of rice planthopper used at the beginning of the months from March to September are established. Their historical simulated results are good, and the accuracies of extended range prediction in 2003 are 85.6%、90.5%、90.5%、90.4%、90.9%、93.2%、96.3%, respectively. In order to understand the possible influencing mechanism of atmospheric circulation on the occurrence area of rice planthopper, relationships among monthly temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration of different time-periods from January to November in the rice planted area, key atmospheric circulation characteristic indices and the occurrence area of rice planthopper are analyzed. The results show that relations among them are close. The atmospheric circulation influences the temperature, precipitation, sunshine in the riceplanted area, thus affecting the ratio of the occurrence area of rice planthopper. The influencing periods of meteorological factors on the occurrence of rice planthopper are mainly winter and summer.

     

/

返回文章
返回