末次冰期冰盛期中国地区水循环因子变化的模拟研究

Simulation of Hydrological Cycle Changes over China during LGM.Acta Meteorologica Sinica

  • 摘要: ISCCP卫星资料(1983-2006年)的结果显示:青藏高原地区是高云的高值中心;而以四川为中心直到同纬度的中国东南沿海地区是中云的高值区,同时,青藏高原地区是中云的低值中心。利用全球气候模式CCM3嵌套区域模式MM5模拟了现代和LGM时的气候。通过MM5模拟的结果与ISCCP的卫星资料对比表明:模拟结果再现了中国地区高云和中云分布的主要特征。这暗示云分布的气候特征可能主要由相对湿度决定。同时,通过MM5的结果与NCEP资料的对比也说明,模式结果可以较好地模拟水汽和温度的垂直分布。在此基础上,研究了LGM时水循环因子的变化。模式结果显示:LGM时夏季对流层的温度降低,在对流层中上层存在温度降低的中心;而在冬季在南方的对流层中层存在减温中心,在北方的对流层的中上层温度增加。大气中水汽含量与温度变化有很好的正相关,除了冬季北方对流层中上层水汽增加外,水汽含量一般减少,而且在近地层减少的最多,随高度增高水汽变化逐渐变小。但是,水汽的相对变化在对流层上层存在减少的高值中心。相对湿度存在变化,最大的变化超过15%,而且有增加,也有减少。在区域尺度相对湿度不是保守的。相对湿度变化与中云和低云的变化一致。在LGM,中国地区高云量减少,除中国西南地区外,中云和低云量减少,低云量减少的最多。降水的变化与中云和低云的变化相对应,云量增加降水增加,云量减少降水也减少。从相对湿度和有效降水可以看到在西南地区在LGM时变得潮湿,在夏季西北地区也变得潮湿。

     

    Abstract: Based on ISCCP datasets (1983-2006), it is found that there is a high center of high cloud over the Tibetan Plateau and a high center of middle cloud over the Sichuan Province and the regions along the same latitude in East China; whereas a low center of middle cloud over the Tibetan Plateau. Present and LGM climates are simulated with a global climate model CCM3 nested with a regional model MM5. Comparison of MM5 modeled clouds and ISCCP data illustrates that the model can reproduce the main patterns of high and middle cloud over China, suggesting that climate characteristics of cloud might be determined by relative humidity as modeled clouds is simply a derivative of relative humidity. Meanwhile, the modeled results are in well agreement with NCEP data in the vertical distributions of water vapor and temperature. Based on the above verification results, the hydrological cycle changes during LGM are simulated and analyzed. Model results show that during LGM, temperature in the troposphere decreases with a high center of temperature reduction in the upper and middle troposphere in summer. There is a high center of temperature reduction in middle troposphere over South China in winter while temperature increases in upper and middle troposphere over North China. Water vapor changes are positively related to temperature changes. The water vapor generally drops with the maximum decrease near surface except that in upper and middle troposphere over North China in winter. The water vapor changes gradually weaken with height, but their relative changes reach the maximum in the upper troposphere. Relative humidity changes occur with the maximum of more than 15%. The relative humidity isn’t conservative on regional scale. Changes of middle and low cloud are consistent with the relative humidity changes. During LGM, high cloud reduces except in Southwest China, and middle and low cloud also decrease. Moreover, the low cloud reduction is the most in the three types of clouds. Precipitation changes correspond with the changes of middle and low cloud. Based on the changes of the relative humidity and effective precipitation, it is found that during LGM Southwest China became wetter, and Northwest China became wetter in summer.

     

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