夏季西北太平洋和南中国海台风生成与前期冬春主要环境条件的关系

The relationship between the summer typhoon genesis over the western North Pacific and South China Sea and the main climatic conditions in the preceding winter to spring

  • 摘要: 利用NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料、OLR资料和中国气象局编辑的《台风年鉴》和《热带气旋年鉴》资料,对西北太平洋和南中国海夏季中心附近的平均风力达8级(17 m/s)或以上的热带气旋(含热带风暴、强热带风暴和台风,以下统称台风)生成频数与气候背景的关系进行了研究分析。对台风生成多寡的气候背景的差异和特征进行比较表明,前期冬春季海温和赤道辐合带的异常与夏季台风生成有密切的关系。前期冬春季在类似于La Ni?a型海温距平分布背景下,从冬至夏在赤道中太平洋160oE附近的ITCZ有一个向西北方向加强北抬的过程,太平洋ITCZ的活动偏北偏强,赤道太平洋有异常活跃的ITCZ向西太平洋台风主要源地推进,有利于后期夏季台风的生成;相反,前期冬春季在类似于El Ni?o型海温距平分布背景下,赤道西太平洋ITCZ偏弱偏南,不利于后期夏季的台风生成。在夏季多台风年,前期冬季西太平洋暖海温异常为后期台风的发展提供了重要的有利背景,在暖海温的持续作用下,对流层的风场辐合异常增强,增加了暖海温区的水汽供应。到了前期春季,热带辐合带的扰动扮演了更为重要的角色。随着赤道辐合带的北移,附加的异常辐合位于暖海温区时,会激发出低空大尺度水汽辐合与自由大气中潜热释放之间的正反馈,有利于后期台风的生成。当前期冬季至春季西北太平洋海温持续异常偏冷时,对流层的风场为辐散异常,减少了冷海温区的水汽供应,导致赤道辐合带不活跃,缺乏必要扰动,夏季台风生成偏少。

     

    Abstract: Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly data、OLR data and Tropical Cyclone data from 《Typhoon Annual and Tropical Cyclone Annual》edited by China Meteorological Administration, we studied the relationship between the climatic conditions and the number and frequency of tropical cyclones that engender over the western North Pacific and South China Sea in summer. The tropical cyclones that we investigate usually occur with maximum sustainedwinds of equal or greater than 17 m/s, and may be categorized as Tropical Storm, SevereTropical Storm and Typhoon. We simply call them Typhoon in this paper. Firstly, characteristics and differences of the climatic background between the years with more typhoons and those with less typhoons have been compared. The results show that the summer typhoon produce has a close relationship with SST and ITCZ anomalies in the preceding winter and spring. With a La Ni?a like SSTA pattern in the preceding winter and spring, the ITCZ migrates northwest ward and is enhanced around 160oE in the central equatorial Pacific. The Pacific ITCZ is more vigorous and its location is more north than usual, especially in typhoon genesis region in the western Pacific Ocean. The background is propitious to have a more typhoon summer. On the other hand, an El Ni?o like SSTA pattern in the preceding winter will be companied with weaker ITCZ activities, and its location is more south over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean from the preceding winter to spring. It is propitious to have a less typhoon summer. In the more typhoon year, the warm SSTA over the western Pacific in the preceding winter provides a favorable and important background conditionto the typhoon produce in the following summer. It enhances the convergence in the troposphereand increases the water vapor supply over warm SSTA regions. In the following spring,disturbances from the tropical ITCZ play a more important role. When the ITCZ moves northward in spring, anomalous convergence will appear over warm SSTA region and inspire the positive feedback between the large scale moisture flux at low levels and the latent heat release in the atmosphere, which is conducive to the typhoon occurrence in summer. Conversely, if a cold SSTA maintains over the western North Pacific during the preceding winter and spring, it impairs the convergence in the troposphere and decreases the water vapor supply over the cold SSTA region, which will bring on weaker ITCZ activities and the disturbances are lacking in the following spring. This results in a smaller number of summer typhoons.

     

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