2008年雪灾过程高原上游关键区水汽输送机制及其前兆性“强信号”特征

Premonitory of water vapor transport in the upstream key region over the Tibetan Plateau during the 2008 snowstorm disaster in South China.

  • 摘要: 利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、中国气象台站降水量资料、青藏高原及周边地区GPS水汽观测站网大气可降水量资料,采用统计诊断方法,分析了2008年中国南方雨雪冰冻灾害期间4次暴雪过程的动力、热力特征,水汽变化及其输送特征。研究结果表明,灾害发生期间,中国北方中低层大气盛行偏北气流,使较强的偏北冷空气“楔入”中国东南部低层大气,构成低层“冷垫”,同时偏南暖湿气流源源不断地将大量水汽输送到中国东南部,冷暖气流交汇及其垂直切变导致强烈的上升运动,构成了“冷垫”上空的“暖盖”及“南槽北脊”反位相环流汇合锋区的垂直环流结构。反位相环流的偏南水汽主要来自南海和印度洋,两者在中南半岛和中国西南地区合并,构成经过云南及周边关键区的强西南水汽流,形成了长江流域特大雪灾发生的关键水汽通道。研究结果亦证实高原及周边地区JICA项目GPS水汽监测网信息可为中国长江中下游地区暴雪的发生提供具有预报实用意义的重要分析工具及数值模式同化初始信息源。云南及周边区域水汽含量的多少对下游地区后期降水的发生具有一定的指示意义,即水汽输送上游关键区大气可降水量的变化可作为此次南方雨雪冰冻灾害期间降水发生的“前兆性”信号,而云南则是西南水汽输送通道中尤为重要的关键区域。

     

    Abstract: Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, observational precipitation in China and precipitable water vapor (PWV) data from GPS stations in the Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity, thermal and dynamic features and the variation and transportation of water vapor in the 2008 heavy snowstorm disaster in South China are analyzed by statistical diagnosis. Results show that during the snowstorm disaster, under the large scale background with “trough in south and ridge in north”, strong cold air caused by prevailing northerly wind in northern Asia wedged into low level atmosphere over Southeast China and formed a “clod cushion”. At the same time, warm-wet air was also transported to Southeast China by southerly wind. The vertical shear of winds from cold to warm airflows produced strong upward motion and then, the warm-wet air over the cold air wedge was driven to rise. Finally, the structure of “warm cover” and “cold cushion”, as well as corresponding vertical circulation over the converging frontal zone came into being. The water vapor supply of the 2008 snowstorm in South China mainly came from the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. These two branches of water vapor transport channels merged in the Indo China Peninsula and Southwest China, and then formed a strong southwest water vapor transport stream passing through Yunnan Province and the nearby. This was the important water vapor transport channel of the snowstorm disaster in the Yangtze River Valley in 2008. From our study, it is found that the water vapor observation from the GPS network serves as an important forecasting tool and provides initial information needed for the assimilation in numerical model simulations of the rainfalls in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The water vapor convergence in Yunnan Province and its surrounding areas indicated occurrence of later precipitation in the downstream regions, i.e., the variation of PWV in the upstream key region of water vapor transport can be used as a premonitory signal of the snowstorm disaster. It can also be seen that Yunnan Province is the most important key region for the southwest water vapor transport.

     

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