三江源地区草地退化对中国区域气候影响的数值模拟研究

The impacts of grassland degradation on regional climate over the origin area of three rivers in Qinghai -Tibet Plateau, China

  • 摘要: 人类活动导致的土地利用变化是区域气候变化的一个重要驱动因素。位于青藏高原腹地的三江源地区,生态系统十分脆弱,其独特的地理位置决定了源区的生态环境对中国乃至全球的气候变化、生态环境均有十分重要的影响。该研究应用区域气候模式RegCM3,通过两组数值模拟试验结果的对比分析,探讨三江源地区的草地退化对中国区域气候的影响。模拟试验的区域模式水平分辨率为60 km,模拟区域中心位于35°N,105°E,水平格点数为92×82,相当于5520 km×4920 km的范围。研究结果表明:RegCM3对中国区域气候具有较好的模拟能力,能够用于定量研究土地利用变化对区域气候的影响。三江源地区的草地退化引起的气候变化在不同的地区是不一致的,变化最明显的地区是青藏高原地区。草地退化将会引起青藏高原地区的冬季降温和其他季节升温,气温变化最显著的季节是春季(0.46 ℃),冬季变化最小(0.03 ℃);三江源地区的草地退化对中国中、东部地区的气候影响较复杂,主要表现为夏季长江以北地区有不同程度的升、降温现象。由于青藏高原夏季热源作用的加强,导致夏季青藏高原低层大气的热低压有所加强,太平洋副热带高压向东退缩。降水量的变化主要表现在夏季降水的普遍减少。草地退化后,青藏高原地区的气候有向暖干方向发展的趋势。

     

    Abstract: Regional climate model (RegCM3) was applied to explore the possible effects of land use changes (e.g., grassland degradation in this study) on local and regional climate over the origin area of three rivers (Changjiang, Huanghe, Lancangjiang) in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Two multiyear(1991-1999) numerical simulation experiments were conducted: one was a control experiment with current land use and the other was adesertification experiment with potential- grassland degradation.Preliminary analysis indicated that RegCM3 is appropriate forsimulating land-climate interactions, as the patterns of thesimulated surface air temperature, the summer precipitation, and the geopotential height fields are consistent with the observed values. The desertification over the origin area of three rivers will cause different climate effects in different regions depending on the surrounding environment and climate characteristics. The area with obvious change in surface air temperature inducing by grassland degradation over the origin area of three rivers is located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A winter surface air temperature drop and the other seasons' surface air temperature increase will be observed over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on two numericalsimulation experiments. Surface air temperature changes in spring are the largest (0.46 ℃), and in winter are the smallest (smaller than 0.03 ℃), indicating an increasing mean annual surface air temperature over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Surface air temperature changes will be smaller and more complex over the origin area of three rivers, with minor winter changes for the regions just outside the plateau and notable summer changes over the north of the Changjang. The reinforced summer heat source in the plateau will lead to an intensification of heat low,causing the West Pacific subtropical high to retreat eastward. This will be followed by a decrease of precipitation in summer. The plateau's climate tends to become warm and dry due to the grassland degradation over the origin area of three rivers.

     

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