校准雨量计密度对雷达联合雨量计估测流域平均面雨量的影响

An investigation into the effect of rain gauge density on estimating the areal rainfall using a radargauge calibration algorithm

  • 摘要: 使用加密雨量计网资料联合合肥新一代多普勒天气雷达资料,通过5个个例对2003年佛子岭和响洪殿子流域内6月下旬至7月中旬的3次典型梅雨期层积混合云降水过程,进行了校准雨量计密度对雷达联合雨量计估测流域平均面雨量的影响研究。文中采用Z =300 I 1.4和 Z =200 I1.6两种关系式进行雷达降水估测,以各流域内布设12 部雨量计距离平方反比法得到的平均面雨量作为真值,使用的校准雨量计数量逐渐从12部减少至1部,对雷达联合雨量计网以及单独使用雨量计网进行降水估算,并对结果进行了分析。结果表明:相比于作为真值的12部雨量计平均面雨量序列,两流域内未经校准的雷达估测累积平均面雨量均存在20%—50%的低估,使用不同的Z-I关系时,只是低估的程度有所变化;整体上用于校准的雨量计数量越多,校准效果越好,随着校准雨量计数量的增加,均方根误差值逐渐减小,并趋于稳定,同真值序列的相关性逐渐增强;雨量计数量一定时,校准雨量的结果优于单独使用相同雨量计估算的雨量结果;单部雨量计校准时,受雨量计在流域内的分布和相对于雨区的位置等影响,结果随着校准雨量计的不同而变化;文中研究的两流域内,当校准雨量计的数量大于等于2部时,均方根误差稳定,同真值的相关性较高,对应的雨量计密度在佛子岭流域为每900 km2布设1部,响洪殿流域为每700km2布设1部。

     

    Abstract: The effect of rain gauge density on estimating of areal rainfall using a radar-gauge calibration algorithm is studied,which is based upon the dense rain gauge reported data and Hefei CINRAD/SA radar observed reflectivity data over the Foziling and Xianghongdian subcatchments located in the Huaihe River basin with five meiyu front precipitation events occurred during 22 June to 11 July in 2003. The Z-I relationships of Z=200I1.6and Z=300 I1.4 were both used to obtain the guessed radar rainfall, and the areal rainfall derived from 12 rain gauges were chosen as the “true” value. By reducing the number of calibration gauges from 12 to 1 gradually, the corresponding areal rainfall series based on the radargauge calibration algorithm and the rain gauge networks were obtained and compared with the “true” values. The results show that the accumulated rainfall derived without calibration has significant underestimates by about 20%-50% over both the subcatchments for all the five cases studied. The more rain gauges used, the better results were obtained, and the single gauge calibrated radar rainfall seems unstable. The results obtained using the radargauge calibration algorithm show great priority to those derived from rain gauge networks only while the gauge number and locations were fixed. Moreover, when the error of precipitation estimation is less than 10% with the stable RMSE(ERMS) and high correlation coefficients, the corresponding gauge density is one per 700 km 2 or so for the Xianghongdian sub-catchment, and per 900 km 2 or so for the Foziling sub-catchment, respectively.

     

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