全球海气系统年代际突变时空特征的模拟评估

An evaluation of the spatiotemporal structures of the decadal abrupt changes in the global oceanatmosphere system simulated by the coupled climate models

  • 摘要: 文中评估了5个耦合模式对1880年至今全球海气系统的年平均年代际突变时空特征的模拟能力。19世纪80年代—20世纪90年代,评估了耦合模式对海表温度(SST)和海平面气压(SLP)的年代际突变水平分布的模拟能力;20世纪70—90年代,评估了耦合模式对70、80和90年代这3次年代际突变大气的四维时空特征的模拟。结果表明,在上述2个时段中,5个耦合模式对SST场中年代际突变分布最主要的空间分布型——太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)没有抓住,可能导致了对SST年代际突变的空间分布的模拟能力较差,也没有模拟出SLP年代际突变的行星及其以上尺度的空间结构。20世纪70—90年代,在对流层中,UKMO HadGEM1模式较好地模拟出了70年代的热带地区500 hPa气温和位势高度,80年代极地SLP,90年代南、北副热带气温和500 hPa气温的年代际突变的空间分布。GFDL-CM2.1模式部分模拟出了90年代的SST和500 hPa温度场突变的水平分布。其余模式中也有行星及以上尺度的年代际突变发生,虽然所模拟出来的突变的时间和空间分布与实际差异都较大,但说明这些模式可以模拟出大尺度气候系统年代际突变,其中包含的物理过程还有待于进一步的研究。在平流层,肖栋(2008年)指出1994年平流层的降温突变可能是1991年Pinatubo火山爆发所造成的臭氧减少导致的。其中,GFDL CM2.1和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式较好地模拟出了平流层在1994年的降温突变,CCSM3和UKMO-HadGEM1模式部分模拟出了平流层的变冷突变,而FGOALS-g1.0模式没有模拟出来。分析表明,这可能是FGOALS-g1.0模式没有考虑火山灰或者臭氧的作用所致。

     

    Abstract: The spatiotemporal structures of the decadal abrupt changes (DACs) in the annually averaged field in the global oceanatmosphere system simulated by the coupled climate models (e.g., CCSM3, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, GFDL-CM2.1, FGOALS-g1.0 and UKMOHadGEM1) are evaluated in this study. Since 1880, these five coupled climate models haven’t captured the dominant mode—the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) of the distribution of the DAC episodes in the global sea surface temperature (SST) field and the planetaryscale structure of the distribution of the DAC episodes in the sea level pressure (SLP) field. Among the 1970s-1990s periods, the spatiotemporal characteristics of the DACs of the 500 hPa tropical air temperature and geopotential height in 1970s, those of the SLP DACs over the North Pole in 1980s, and those of the DACs in both the northern and southern subtropical air temperatures were well simulated by the UKMOHadGEM1 model, and those of the DACs in 1990s of SST and 500 hPa air temperature by the GFDL-CM2.1 model. There are the planetaryscale atmospheric DACs which occurred in other models. It means that these five coupled climate models could depict the mechanisms of the planetaryscale atmospheric DACs in themselves, although the spatiotemporal structures of these DACs are not consistent with the actual ones. The decreased DACs in 1990s in the stratosphere, which maybe were caused by the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 (Xiao, 2008), are well simulated by the GFDL-CM2.1 and ECHAM5/MPIOM models, partly by the CCSM3 and UKMOHadGEM1 models, and not by the FGOALSg1.0 model. According to the analysis in this study, this may result from the lack of consideration of the influences of the eruption or ozone in the FGOALSg1.0 model.

     

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