长江流域夏季气温变化型及其成因Ⅰ:年际变化与遥相关

A classification of the summertime temperature patterns in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and their causes Ⅰ: Interannual variatious and teleconnections

  • 摘要: 采用中国气象局整编的气温资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、哈得来月平均海温资料以及CPC(NOAA)指数,分析了长江流域夏季气温的变化型及其成因。结果表明:长江中下游地区夏季气温呈现出全区一致、南北反相以及东西反相3种分布型,且这3种分布型分别是中国同号气温异常变化、南北反号气温异常以及东西反号气温异常分布背景下的局部反映。上述这3种气温异常型具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征, 其中在年际尺度上具有2—5年的周期,反映出在年代际背景下的年际变化;在年际尺度上,3种异常型分别对应不同特点的环流型,并且高度场在长江中下游地区上空的垂直分布均呈准正压结构;3种异常型对应的环流型的维持分别与来自大西洋穿越极区的波列,由地中海沿亚洲急流东传的波列以及北半球环状模有关。同时,全区一致型和南北反相型与PJ型波列联系紧密,其中南北反相型与该波列联系更为紧密; 全区一致型与Nino3海温指数呈负相关关系, 其中超前一季的负相关最大。南北反相型与Nino3海温指数超前2季相关最高,与Nino4海温指数同时相关最高。 东西反相型则与Nino3海温指数同时相关最高,与Nino4海温指数超前3季相关最高。这些结果可为进一步认识长江流域夏季气温变化规律和极端天气气候事件的预测提供线索。

     

    Abstract: Using the temperature data from China Meteorological Administration, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the monthly mean Hadley SST as well as some indices from the CPC(NOAA), we have analyzed the variations of the summertime temperature anomalies in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The results show that the summertime temperatures vary according to the three principal modes: the first mode changes with a uniformly signed structure spatially, the second with an opposite phase meridionally, and the third with an opposite phase zonally. And they are respectively a part of the anomalous temperature distributions in the whole country. All of the three modes change on both interannual and decadal timescales. The 2-5 year periodicities are the prominent variations in these three modes. On interannual timescale, the aforementioned three modes are related to the different circulation anomalies whose vertical structures are barotropic. The maintenance of the anomalous circulations related to the three patterns are found to be related to respectively the wave train originated from the Atlantic and propagating through the Arctic areas, the perturbations propagating easterward along the Asian jet from the Mediterranean region, and the Arctic Oscillation. Besides, the first two modes are closely related to the wave train of the P-J pattern. Concerned with the CPC index, the PC1 is negatively and well correlated with the Nino3 index with the Nino3 index leading 1 season to the PC1. The correlation coefficient between the PC2 and the Nino3 (Nino4) index is significant if the Nino3 index is two (zero) seasons leaded to it. And the PC3 is also well correlated with the Nino3 index simultaneously especially when the Nino4 is leading to the PC3 by 3 seasons. These results mentioned in the present article are helpful for us to better understand the variation features of summer climate in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and to find clue to the prediction for the extremes of summertime temperatures.

     

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