Abstract:
Thermodynamic and vertical wind shear parameters derived from the BJ-RUC proximity soundings at the station No. 54511 are also evaluated for the 20 summer convection cases in the Beijing area. Trends and magnitudes revealed by the convective parameters of soundings based from the BJ-RUC analyses are quite consistent with the observed results, suggesting that the BJ-RUC analysis sounding can be regarded as a reasonable proxy for observed soundings in convective environments. The forecasted soundings at t =3 hour and t=6 hour are able to provide indications to the forecast of convective potential around 1-and 4-hour ahead of time, respectively, which is valuable especially when considering their implementation in practical operations. Two strong convection cases are given to show the performance and preliminary implementations of the soundings derived from the BJ-RUC analyses and forecasts. From the cases, it can be found that the soundings from the BJ-RUC are helpful to the forecast of future convection potential. But significantly, its still very difficult to accurately forecast the time, strength, location and even the type of convection from the model-output soundings.