Abstract:
Nowcasting refers to the weather forecast of high spatial and temporal resolution in 0-6 hours (focusing on 0-2 hours) periods, and the main forecast target is the significant changing weather phenomena in the forecast period, including thunderstorms, severe convection, precipitation, winter snowstorms, visibility, sky cover, etc. The nowcasting of thunderstorms and severe convective weather is the most challenging in the above mentioned. In this paper, subjective nowcasting techniques and objective algorithm were been reviewed, and high-resolution numerical forecast models used in the nowcasting were been discussed. Subjective nowcasting techniques include the nowcasting of the formation, development and decay of a thunderstorm as well as severe convective weather (including large hail, tornadoes, thunderstorm winds, and convective rainstorm) based on Doppler weather radar observation data combined with other data such as satellite pictures, soundings, etc. The objective algorithm includes the most widely used several radar echo extrapolation and the severe convective weather detection technology. In addition, the application of high resolution numerical prediction models includes extending the nowcast time range by combining the NWP outputs with the radar echo extrapolation, and use of rapid updated cycle integrating model outputs and a variety of observational data to construct a rapid updated three dimensional grid data base for the basic meteorological parameters, which provides an important reference to judge thunderstorm and severe convective storm environments.