雷达与雨量计同步结合区域型估算降水方程的误差分析

Error analysis of the regional radar-raingauge synchronously integrated precipitation estimation equation

  • 摘要: 在明确提出云雨转换的概念和建立4个区域型雷达降水估算方程的基础上, 重点研究了ABS区域型降水估算方程误 差估算的表示方法和评估判据, 并分析了误差产生的原因, 由此建立一种可通过设定μi合理区间来判别雷达和雨量计错误数据对的质量控制新方法。单站云雨转换系数ABi是时空的函数, 带有强烈的天气系统和地理属性。ABi与区域云雨转换公共 系数ABS以bf-1为指数幂值的相对离差就等于单站降水误差估算因子μi,从而揭示了引起降水估算误差的根本原因。在μi的基础上扩展衍生出表示区域降水估算误差的4个量值, 即区域平均绝对误差估算因子μA、区域降水误差估算率μS、区域降水 绝对误差估算率μ|S|及区域平均绝对误差估算量EN,指明了各自的物理意义并分析其间的相互关系。理论和实践表明, 在 “基于准同雨团样本概念雷达和雨量计的实时同步结合方法”(RASIM)中, ABS型区域降水估算方程对于区域各站降水总量的 估算具有μS=0的特点。μA是区域内各单站|μi|的平均值, 可诠释为多个单站的ABi相对于ABS的聚合与离散程度的整体表示, 与天气系统的结构及演变过程特征的复杂性密切相关, 但μA与雨量大小无关, 无力判定降水估算的误差量。而μ|S|和EN 既联系着μA,又与雨量有关, 是较为合理而实用的降水估算误差判据。经过武汉雷达探测4次降水过程的试验评估, 总体绝 对误差率μT|S|小于30%,比未经过质量控制的误差减少7%.

     

    Abstract: The concepts of cloud-rain transform are presented and the four regional radar precipitation estimation equations are proposed. Our research is focused on the expression methods and evaluation criterions of errors of ABS regional radar precipitati on estimation equations. The reason for radar precipitation estimation error is analyzed, and a new data quality control method is proposed to judge erroneous radar-raingauge data pairs through restraining μi,within a reasonable rang. The cloud-rain transform coefficient ABi of a single station is a spatial-temporal function with strong weather and geographic characteristics. The single station misestimate factor μi is given by the relative deviation of ABi to the power of bf-1 from ABS to the power of bf-1, and it reveals that the fundamental cause of precipitation estimation error is the difference between single station observed ABi and the whole region common ABS. Originated from μi,the four other factors describing regional precipitation estimation errors arc defined: the regional average absolute misestimate factor μA,the regional precipitation misestimatc ratio μs and the regional precipitation absolute misestimate ratio μ|s| and the regional average absolute misestimate value EN. The physical meanings of the four factors arc explained and their corrclations are analysed. In the RASIM method, the ABS regional precipitation estimation equation shows the advantage of zero error of regional total precipitation estimation(μs=0) both in theory and prac-tice. The factor μA is the average value of each single station |μA| among the whole region, and can be interpreted as a general expression of coherence and deviation of multiple ABi from ABS. The factoris μA is closely related to the weather system structure and the complexity of its evolution process, however, it is unrelated to the amount of precipitation and incapable to judge precipitation estimation error value. The factors μ|s| and EN are related to both μA and precipitation, and thus they are reasonable and suitable judge criterions for precipitation estimation errors. The experimental evaluations from radars at Wuhan during the four rain events give a value of total ahsolute misestimate ratio μT|S| less than 30%, which is a decrease of 7% compared with that without quality control.

     

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