气候敏感度、气候反馈过程与2℃升温阈值的不确定性问题

The uncertainty in the 2℃ warming threshold issue as related to climate sensitivity and climate feedback

  • 摘要: 气候敏感度是度量温室气体浓度升高和全球升温幅度关系的重要指标,当前气候模拟和气候预估中的很多不确定性问题,都直接和气候敏感度有关。气候敏感度的大小也决定着预估的气候变暖幅度的大小,直接影响到温室气体减排政策的制订。在简要回顾气候敏感度概念的提出和研究历史基础上,着眼于气候反馈分析,介绍了气候敏感度与辐射强迫和反馈过程的关系,总结了气候系统主要的反馈过程;根据大气层顶的能量平衡关系,利用CMIP5多模式结果介绍了平衡态气候敏感度和瞬态气候响应(包括累积碳排放的瞬态气候响应)的估算原理和方法,总结了气候敏感度不确定性的来源,并以"2℃阈值"问题为例,介绍了气候敏感度对预估结果不确定性的影响。随着观测资料的积累和气候模式的发展,继续减少气候敏感度的不确定性、估算包含碳循环的敏感度、利用地球系统模式规划最优碳排放路径是未来本领域主要的研究方向。

     

    Abstract: The climate sensitivity is an important index that measures the relationship between the increase of greenhouse gasses and the magnitude of global warming. Uncertainties in the climate change projection and climate modeling are mostly related to the climate sensitivity. The climate sensitivities of coupled climate models determine the magnitudes of the projected global warming. In this paper, the authors have thoroughly reviewed the studies of climate sensitivities, and discussed the issues related to climate feedback processes, the methods used in estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and the transient climate response (TCR), including the TCR to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE). After presenting a summary of the sources that affect the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, the impact of climate sensitivity on climate change projection is discussed by addressing the uncertainties in the 2℃ warming issue. Challenges that call for further researches are also discussed.

     

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