非齐次隐马尔可夫降尺度方法对江淮流域夏季逐日降水的模拟及其评估

丁梅; 江志红; 陈威霖

doi:10.11676/qxxb2016.054

非齐次隐马尔可夫降尺度方法对江淮流域夏季逐日降水的模拟及其评估

南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京, 210044

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目（41230528、41205062）、国家重点研发计划项目（Grant 2016 YFA0600402）、江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目PAPD、江苏省高校“青蓝工程”创新团队项目、公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201306024）。

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2016-02-24
- 修回日期: 2016-05-25
- 发布日期: 2016-10-26

Simulation and evaluation of summer daily precipitation based on nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin

Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster(CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

摘要

摘要: 引入非齐次隐马尔可夫模型（Nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model，NHMM）统计降尺度方法，利用1961-2002年江淮流域夏季逐日降水资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）的ERA-40再分析资料建立模型，检验其对东部季风区（以江淮流域为代表）夏季日降水的模拟能力，并对比BCC-CSM1.1（m）模式NHMM降尺度前后的模拟效果。结果表明，NHMM降尺度方法通过建立降水概率分布态间转移参数与大尺度环流变量的联系，对江淮流域逐日降水量具有较好的降尺度效果。模拟的各站日降水量概率分布函数（PDF）曲线与观测非常接近，布赖尔评分（Brier Score，SB）均小于0.11%，显著性评分（Significance Score，Ss）均大于0.84；夏季总降水量、降水日数、中雨日数、降水强度和95%分位降水量指数的多年平均场偏差百分率绝对值低于10%，前3个指数的空间相关系数高于0.9；该方法对各降水指数的年际变率也有一定的模拟能力，模拟得到的各指数的区域平均年际序列与观测序列的相关系数为0.62-0.87。对BCC-CSM1.1（m）模式的模拟结果进行降尺度后，SB较降尺度前平均减小0.57%，Ss平均增大0.23，皆表明降尺度后的概率分布函数曲线更接近于观测；各降水指数在多数台站的偏差百分率绝对值由大于40%降至10%以内，空间相关系数普遍提高至0.8以上。NHMM降尺度方法能够有效提高BCC-CSM1.1（m）模式对江淮流域夏季日降水的模拟能力，相对气候模式具有显著的“增值”，未来可进一步利用该方法进行气候变暖背景下的日降水变化预估。
- 非齐次隐马尔可夫模型(NHMM) /
- 统计降尺度 /
- 逐日降水 /
- 模拟
Abstract: The statistical downscaling method of the nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) is introduced in this paper. Based on the observed summer daily precipitation data at 56 meteorological stations in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin and the ERA-40 reanalysis data of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) during 1961-2002, the NHMM is established and the simulation capability of NHMM for summer daily precipitation over the East Asian monsoon area in China (represented by the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin) has been assessed. Results of the NHMM have been compared with that of the BCC-CSM1.1(m). It is found that the NHMM performs well in simulating daily precipitation over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin by establishing the relationship between transition probabilities of the precipitation probability distribution states and the synoptic-scale atmospheric predictors. The simulated probability distribution function (PDF) curves are close to observations at individual stations with the Brier score(SB) less than 0.11% and the significance score (Ss) greater than 0.84. Relative errors of summer total precipitation, number of rainy days (≥ 1 mm), number of rainy days with daily precipitation more than 10 mm, simple daily intensity, 95th percentile value of precipitation all are less than 10%, and the first three indices' spatial correlation coefficients between the NHMM outputs and observations are greater than 0.9. The NHMM can also reproduce the interannual variability of the precipitation indices mentioned above. Correlation coefficients of the annual sequences of area-averaged precipitation indices between simulations and observations are within the range of 0.62-0.87. The NHMM is also driven by predictors of BCC-CSM1.1(m) from 1986 to 2005. After downscaling, the SB averagely decreased by 0.57% and Ss averagely increased by 0.23. This result indicates that the probability distribution function curves are much closer to the observations. Absolute values of relative errors for the precipitation indices at most stations decreased from more than 40% to less than 10%, and the spatial correlation coefficients generally increased to 0.8 or more. The NHMM approach can effectively improve the simulation capability of BCC-CSM1.1(m) for summer daily precipitation and has significant "added value" relative to climate models. Thereby it can be applied to the projection of future precipitation changes under the background of climate warming.
- Nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model /
- Statistical downscaling /
- Daily precipitation /
- Simulation

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张明月, 彭定志, 胡林涓. 2013. 统计降尺度方法研究进展综述. 南水北调与水利科技, 11(3): 118-122. Zhang M Y, Peng D Z. Hu L J. 2013. Research progress on statistical downscaling methods. South-to-North Water Transfers Water Sci T慥瑣楨潮湯?????瀨瀳氩??攱琱攸漭爱?′????㈠?????び???????抳犳??疐林桦攮猠′?‰倷???疡瑍琺澦犹烕?偄???桡憹狕泺旋珄?厐?倔??????????渔潡湦?栬漠洶漵木攴温攺漠甶猵″栭椶搶搲攮渠??慡牯欠潆瘠?洬漠摘敵氠?映潘爮?瀲爰攰挷椮瀠楃瑯慭瑰楡潲湡?潩捶捥甠牡牮敡湬捹敳????剮漠祤?卷瑮慳瑣?卬潥捤?????????????ち?扩牯??楦慯湲朠?婥????却潥湲朠?????業????敯瑦?慙汥???ぷㄠ????硲琠牵敳浩敮?挠汓楄浓愠瑡敮?攠癄敥湬瑴獡?業湥??桯楤湳愮???側????剴??浲漠摓敩汮?散癡愬氠甶愵琨椴漩渺?愶渵搳?瀶父漲樠攨捩瑮椠潃湨???汳楥洩??桲愾湵林效????????水??′????????拻狟??槄爰玹棕溄旞牾?匠?’?〖〔????漠搹攨氱椩渺朠?漭昸??畚汨瑡楯瘠慚爠楃愬琠敌?呯椠浙攬?午敵牡楮敧猠?唠獂椮渠朲‰?椳搮搠敁渠??慶物步潷瘠??漠摥敶污獬??慴汩楯普漠牭湥楴慨?啤湳椠癯敦爠獣楬瑩祭?潴晥??慯汤楥晬潩牮湧椮愠???牧瘠楉湮敱?扩牳??椠畍?婴????塬畩?娬?堹???栺愠爱氭攸猠?卩?倠??敩瑮?慳汥???ひ?????瘠慗泇甬愠瓄槺澌渮?漲昰?琵眮漠?猰琴愳琪楃獉瑍楐挵愡氏?擟潨眃滽珏捳慡泽榛渮朠—洙濘搖攔汶珛?昬漠爱?搨愳椩氺礠′瀲爷攭挲椳瀰椮琠慚瑨楡潯渠?漠癃攬爠?慵湯?慙爬椠摈?扡慮獧椠湊?楂渮??栰椱渵愮???湳瑥????汮楴洠慯瑦漠汧??????????でべ???ぬ?の?扥爠?剳愠扳楩湭敵牬?????畢慹渠朴″??????????湭?楴湥琠牭潯摤略捬瑳椮漠湐?瑯潧?桉楮摱摵敩湳??愠牍歵潴癡?洠潃摬敩汭猬????????匲匲倷??愳朰????ㄠ????????戼牢?刾慂浡??????牃攬稠?????噥???攠牐爬攠楈牵慧?乥????噐攮氠栱漹?????????ちび????楤湯敷慮牳?慡湬摩?湧漠湯汦椠湮敵慭牥?獩瑣慡瑬椠獣瑬楩捭慡汴?搠潭睯湤獥捬愠汳楩湭杵?晡潴物?牮慳椮渠晅慮汶汩?景潮爠敍捯慤獥瑬楬渠杓?潦癴敷爬?匱漳用琳栭攴愩猺琠攳爲渵??爳愱稼楢汲??坥敬慬??潥爠故挬愠獈瑵楧湨来???ㄠ?????????????戠爲?到漰戮攠牁琠獨潩湤???圠???楫牯獶栠湭敯牤?卬??卯浲礠瑤桯?偮???ぬど????楹摮摯数湴??愠牡歴潭癯?浰潨摥敲汩獣?晰潡牴?浥潲摮敳氠楴湯朠?摲慥楣汩祰?牴慡楴湩景慮氠污?潯捵据畴牳爮攠湃捬敩?潡癴敥爠??牳愬稠椱氵??吩攺挠栱??刲攼灢?￣??卡?呬剥?????????湴晥潳爠浂愠瑃椬漠湈?慧湨摥??潊洠灐甮琠攱爹?匹挮椠敁渠捳数??啩湯楴癥敭牰獯楲瑡祬?潭景??慬氠楦景潲爠湤楯慷???牡癬楩湮敧????????灴灡?扩牯?删潯扣散牵瑲獲潥湮???坡???楡牭獯桵湮整牳?匠??升浥祯瑰桨?偳???び???‰?漨睄渲猴挩愺氠椳渱朶‵漷昭″搱愶椶氹礼?牲愾楆湲晩慣汨氠?漬挠捁畬牥牸敡湮捤敥?漠癌攠牖?渠潄牥瑬桬敡愭獍瑡??牡愠穐椬氠?畴猠楡湬朮?愲‰栰椲搮搠敏湢??慲牶步潤瘠?浯潨摥敲汥?????污楮浧慥瑳攠??ㄠ?????????づ???????戠牤?卲楩汮汧洠慴湨湥?????桮慤爠楨湡?噦?噯??婴桨慥渠杴?塥??敩瑥?慨氠???ぴ?????汃楬浩慭瑡整?攠硒瑥牳攬洠攱猹?椳温携椠挱改猳?椲渱′琼桢敲￣???假??洬甠汌瑩極洠潚搠敆氬?敃湨獡敲浬扥汳攠??偐愬爠瑥?ㄠ???漠搲攰氱″攮瘠慁氠畳慣瑯楲潥渭?楡湳?瑤栠敭?灴牨敯獤攠湦瑯?挠污楳浳慥瑳敳?????敨潥瀠桰祥獲?副敲獭??瑣浥漠獯????????????????????戠牯?吠慳湯?坴????女畴獥潲普????奴畲獡潬灩?娮??㈠ぇ????乹潳渠?桥潳洠潁杴敭湯敳漬甠猱?核椨搱搰攩渺??愱爵欴漭瘴?洶漷搼敢汲￣晇潲牥?摮慥椠汁礠?爬愠楒湯晢慥汲汴?慯浮漠畁渠瑗?椠湋?偲敳湨楮湥獲甠汓愮爠′?愰永愮礠獁楮慡???畩牳渠慯汦?呉敮此湩潡汮漠杭楯?????㈠???????ち?扮牦?坬慬渠杯?夠?????楡慳湯杮?婬?????桵敬湴?坤?????ぬㄠ???健攭牳晣潡牬浥慳渠捵敳?潮晧????偤??浮漠摍敡汲獫?楶渠?瑯桤敥?献椠浑畵污慲瑴椠潊渠?潯晹?捍汥楴浥慯瑲攠?捯档愬爠愱挳琴攨父椳猳琩椺挠猸?漵昭?猸礷渼潢灲琾楈捵?灨慥瑳琠敊爠湐猬?潇癵整牴??慰猠瑐??猱椹愹?????攠瑣敬潡牳?删敯獦??????????????つ??扳爠?婯桲漠畲?呬????奧甠?剹?????っ????呯睳数湨瑥楲敩瑣栠?捡整湴瑥畲牮祳?獴畯爠晲慥捧敩?慮楡牬?瑨敹浤灲敯牬慯瑧畩牣攠?潨癥敮牯??桮楡渮愠?慡湴摥?琠桒敥?杯汵潲戠敒?獳椬洠申氰愨琵攩携?戱礵″挵漭由瀵水收搼?捲氾楈浵慧瑨敥?洠潊搠敐氬猠?????汲楰洠慐琮攠?????金㈠?????????????戠牳?婡潴物楡瑬愠?????畤来桮散獥???偤???敭瑯瑳数浨慥楲敩牣???側??敩瑮?慡氠????????匠瑰潲捥档慩獰瑩楴挀?挀栀愀爀愀挀琀攀爀椀稀愀琀椀漀渀?漀昀?爀攀最椀漀渀愀氀?挀椀爀挀甀氀愀琀椀漀渀?瀀愀琀琀攀爀渀猀?昀漀爀?挀氀椀洀愀琀攀?洀漀搀攀氀?搀椀愀最渀漀猀椀猀?愀渀搀?攀猀琀椀洀愀琀椀漀渀?漀昀?氀漀挀愀氀?瀀爀攀挀椀瀀椀琀愀琀椀漀渀?????氀椀洀愀琀攀?????????　????　??