宁波一次罕见持续重度污染事件的成因分析

Analysis on a rare persistent heavy pollution event in Ningbo

  • 摘要: 2013年12月1—10日宁波市出现历史罕见持续性重度污染事件。基于常规天气观测、浙江省自动气象站、宁波慈溪边界层风廓线雷达和凉帽山岛370 m高塔、宁波市和舟山市污染物监测等资料,应用美国NOAA HYSPLIT4模式进行粒子后向轨迹分析,并将CALMET诊断模式应用到WRF中尺度数值模式输出,对本次污染发展和消散过程宁波市3 km以下气象要素进行精细化诊断分析,计算通风系数。结果表明:(1)合适的环流背景是污染发展和持续的主要原因。气溶胶粒子浓度升高过程中有3次弱冷空气影响,主要表现在800 m以上层次,为粒子的输送提供了好的动力条件,却又不影响边界层风速和稳定性。弱冷空气间歇期风力弱,风向快速变化,利于粒子的循环滞留。(2)污染发展和持续阶段宁波市区3000 m以下持续弱下沉气流,夜间边界层高度低,200 m以下存在明显逆温层,导致气溶胶粒子在低层的堆积和能见度的降低。(3)污染发展和持续阶段夜间通风系数均小于1 m2/s,扩散条件很差,而污染消散阶段通风系数明显增大。没有外源性粒子输入时,通风系数与气溶胶粒子浓度成负相关。

     

    Abstract: A rare persistent heavy pollution event occurred in Ningbo during 1 to 10 December 2013. Data from conventional weather observations and automatic weather stations in Zhejiang Province, wind profiles from Cixi wind profiler radar and observations at the 370 m tower on the Ningbo Liangmaoshan Island, and the pollutant data collected at Ningbo and Zhoushan were analyzed. The NOAA HYSPLIT4 particle trajectory model and the WRF/CALMET diagnosis model were applied to investigate the particle trajectories in the boundary layer. Results showed that:(1) The synoptic circulation background played a critical role for the outbreak of the pollution event. Accompanied with the pollution enhancement, three weak cold air mass activities affected the levels above 800 m over the pollution region, which provided favorable dynamic conditions for pollutants transport, but they little impact on wind speeds and stability at the lower levels in the boundary layer. The wind speeds were weak and wind directions changed quickly between the cold air intermittent periods, providing very good conditions for pollutants circulation and retention; (2) Persistent weak descending motions, low boundary layer height, and a thermal inversion layer below 200 m were all favorable for the aerosol accumulation and visibility deterioration; (3) Dispersion was poor with the ventilation value less than 1 m2/s at night during the haze lasting period, and the ventilation value rose up significantly during the pollution weakening period. The ventilation value was negatively correlated with aerosol concentration when there existed no exogenous particles.

     

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