Analysis and comparison of summer precipitation features and physical mechanisms between 2016 and 1998
-
摘要: 利用多种大气环流、海表温度、积雪面积等数据，并利用个例对比分析和统计方法，研究了2016年汛期（5-8月）中国旱、涝特征及与1998年的异同点，并对比分析了这两年导致降水异常的大气环流和外强迫因子。结果表明：（1）2016年汛期中国降水总体偏多，长江中下游和华北各有一支多雨带。与1998年相比，这两年南方多雨带均位于长江流域，梅雨雨量均较常年偏多1倍以上，但梅雨季节进程有显著差异，1998年发生典型的“二度梅”，而2016年梅雨结束后长江流域降水显著偏少，主要降水区移至北方。（2）2016年5-7月乌拉尔山高压脊明显偏弱，而1998年欧亚中高纬度呈“两脊一槽”型，这与北大西洋海温距平在这两年前冬至春季几乎完全相反的分布型密切相关。（3）这两年5-7月热带和副热带地区环流较为相似，副热带高压偏强、偏西，东亚夏季风偏弱，来自西北太平洋的水汽输送通量均在长江中下游形成异常辐合区，这主要是受到了前期相似的热带海温异常的影响，均为超强厄尔尼诺事件和热带印度洋全区一致偏暖模态。（4）这两年8月环流形势有显著差异，2016年8月副热带高压断裂，西段与大陆高压结合持续控制中国东部上空，夏季风迅速转强，长江流域高温少雨。而1998年8月夏季风进一步减弱，长江流域发生“二度梅”。2016年8月MJO异常活跃并长时间维持在西太平洋地区，激发频繁的热带气旋活动，对副热带地区大气环流的转折有重要作用。而1998年8月MJO主要活跃在印度洋地区，使得副高持续前期偏强的特征。除海洋和上述环流差异外，2016年前冬至春季青藏高原积雪的冷源热力效应远不及1998年强，这可能是导致2016年夏季风偏弱的程度不及1998年，而2016年汛期华北降水较1998年偏多的原因之一。Abstract: Characteristics of droughts and floods in China during the summer (May-August) of 2016 and 1998 were compared in great detail. The associated atmospheric circulation and external-forcing factors were also investigated and compared for these two years. (1) The precipitation was mostly above normal in China in the summer of 2016, with two main rainfall belts located in the Yangtze River valley (YRV) and North China. Compared with the summer of 1998, a similar rainfall belt occurred in the YRV with the precipitation over 100% above normal. However, the seasonal processes of Meiyu were different. The typical "second Meiyu" occurred in 1998, whereas dry condition dominated the YRV after the end of Meiyu in 2016. (2) During May-July 2016, the Ural high was weaker than normal, but it was stronger than normal in 1998. This difference was resulted from the totally different distribution of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the North Atlantic Ocean during the preceding winter and spring of the two years. (3) However, the tropical and subtropical circulations were much similar in May-July of 2016 and 1998. Circulations in both years were characterized by stronger than normal and more westward-extending west Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), weaker than normal East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and anomalous convergence of moisture flux in the middle and lower reaches of the YRV. These similar circulation anomalies were attributed to the similar tropical SSTA pattern in the preceding seasons, i.e. the super El Niño and strong warming in the tropical Indian Ocean. (4) Significant differences in the circulation pattern were observed in August between the two years. The WPSH broke in August 2016, with the western part combining with the continental high and persistently dominating eastern China. The EASM suddenly became stronger, and dry condition prevailed in the YRV. On the contrary, the EASM became weaker in August 1998 and the "second Meiyu" took place in the YRV. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity became extremely active in August 2016 and stayed in the western Pacific for 25 days. It triggered frequent tropical cyclone activities and further influenced the significant turning of the tropical and subtropical circulation in August 2016. However, MJO was active in the tropical Indian Ocean in August 1998, which was favorable for the maintenance of a strong WPSH. Except for the above ocean factors and atmospheric circulation anomalies, the thermal effect of the snow cover over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from the preceding winter to spring in 2016 was much weaker than that in 1998. This may explain the relatively stronger EASM and more precipitation in North China in 2016 than in 1998.
-
-
![]()
图 1 2016年(a)和1998年(b)汛期(5—8月)降水量距平百分率
Figure 1. Percentage anomalies in precipitation averaged in May-August in 2016(a)and in 1998(b)
![]()
图 2 2016(a、b)、1998年(c、d)5—7月平均(a、c)和8月(b、d)降水距平百分率分布
Figure 2. Percentage anomalies in precipitation in 2016 (a. May-July mean，b. August)and in 1998(c. May-July mean，d. August)
![]()
图 3 2016年(a)和1998年(b)汛期东部地区(110°E以东)各纬度内平均的日降水量剖面
Figure 3. Time-latitude cross sections of daily precipitation amount in eastern China (to the east of 110°E)in 2016(a)and in 1998(b)
![]()
图 4 华北(a)和长江中下游(b)汛期逐日降水量(红色为1998年，蓝色为2016年，黑色为1981-2010年气候平均)
Figure 4. Daily precipitation amounts averaged over North China(a)and the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River(b)in 1998(red)，2016(blue)and the mean during 1981-2010(black)respectively
![]()
图 5 1951—2016年长江中下游梅雨季雨量
Figure 5. Annual Meiyu amounts over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1951 to 2016
![]()
图 6 2016年(a—c)和1998年(d—f)5—7月平均大气环流场
Figure 6. General circulation fields in 2016(a-c)and 1998(d-f)
![]()
![]()
图 8 5月1日—8月31日40°—60°N平均500 hPa高度距平场时间-经度逐日演变
Figure 8. Time-longitude cross sections of 500 hPa geopotential height averaged over 4 0°-60°N from 1 May to 31 August
![]()
图 9 2016(a—d)和1998年(e—h)海温月距平演变 (a、e．1月，b、f．3月，c、g．5月，d、h．7月)
Figure 9. Monthly SSTA in 2016(a-d)and 1998(e-h)(a，e. January，b，f. March，c，g. May，d，h. July)
![]()
图 10 1980—2015年(a)2—4月平均热带印度洋全区一致海温指数(IOBW，实心柱)和Nino3.4指数(空心柱)分别与5—8月各月副高强度指数的相关系数；(b)3—8月各月IOBW和Nino3.4指数分别与同期副高强度指数的相关系数
Figure 10. (a) Correlation coefficients of monthly WPSH intensity(WPSHI)from May to August with the IOBW index(solid column)and Nino3.4 index(hollow column)averaged in February-April during 1980-2015，respectively.(b)Monthly correlation coefficients of WPSHI with simultaneous IOBW and Nino3.4 indices from March to August
![]()
图 11 2016和1998年北大西洋海温三极子指数(NAT)逐月演变(a，红色为2016年，蓝色为1998年)及1980—2014年2—4月平均NAT与5—7月平均500 hPa高度场的相关分布(b，阴影区由浅到深表示相关系数通过90%、95%和99%的置信水平)
Figure 11. Monthly NAT from January to August(a，red for 2016，blue for 1998)correlation coefficients between NAT in February-April and 500 hPa geopotential height in May-July(b，Shaded areas from light to deep are for the correlation coefficients above the 90%，95% and 99% confidence levels，respectively)
![]()
图 12 (a)1980—2015年冬季青藏高原(26°—40°N，74°—104°E)积雪面积距平指数(柱状)和1987—2015年冬季青藏高原积雪深度指数(曲线)；(b)1997年9月—1998年8月(实心柱)和2015年9月—2016年8月(空心柱)青藏高原积雪面积指数逐月演变
Figure 12. (a)Snow cover anomalies(column)and snow depths anomalies(curve) averaged in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(74°-104°E，26°-40°N)in the winter during 1980-2015 (b)Monthly snow cover areas index averaged in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from September 1997 to August 1998(solid column)and from September 2015 to August 2016(hollow column)
![]()
图 13 2016年(a)和1998年(b)7—9月MJO指数位相
Figure 13. MJO phase diagrams in July-September for 2016(a)and 1998(b)
![]()
图 14 1979—2016年8月MJO处于6—7位相的累计天数(a)和平均强度(b)
Figure 14. Accumulated days(a)and mean intensities(b)of MJO in the 6th and 7th phases in August from 1979 to 2016
-
车涛,李新. 2005. 1993-2002年中国积雪水资源时空分布与变化特征.冰川冻土,27(1):64-67. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BCDT20050100C.htm Che Tao, Li Xin. 2005. Spatial distribution and temporal variation of snow water resources in China during 1993-2002. J Glaciology Geocryology, 27 (1):64-67 (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BCDT20050100C.htm
陈丽娟, 袁媛, 杨明珠等. 2013. 海温异常对东亚夏季风影响机理的研究进展. 应用气象学报, 24(5):521-532. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX201305002.htm Chen L J, Yuan Y, Yang M Z, et al. 2013. A review of physical mechanisms of the global SSTA impact on EASM. J Appl Meteor Sci, 24(5):521-532 (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX201305002.htm
陈烈庭. 2001. 青藏高原异常雪盖和ENSO在1998年长江流域洪涝中的作用. 大气科学, 25(2):184-192. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200102004.htm Chen L T. 2001. The role of the anomalous snow cover over the Qinghai-Xizang plateau and ENSO in the great floods of 1998 in the Changjiang river valley. Chinese J Atmos Sci, 25(2):184-192 (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200102004.htm
陈乾金, 高波, 李维京等. 2000. 青藏高原冬季积雪异常和长江中下游主汛期旱涝及其与环流关系的研究. 气象学报, 58(5):582-595. http://www.cmsjournal.net/qxxb_cn/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20000507&flag=1 Chen Q J, Gao B, Li W J, et al. 2000. Studies on relationships among snow cover winter over the Tibetan Plateau and droughts/floods during Meiyu season in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River as well as atmosphere/ocean. Acta Meteor Sinica, 58(5):582-595 (in Chinese) http://www.cmsjournal.net/qxxb_cn/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20000507&flag=1
陈兴芳, 赵振国. 2000a. 中国汛期降水预测研究及应用. 北京:气象出版社,241pp. Chen X F, Zhao Z G. 2000a. Study on Precipitation Forecast in China During Flood Season and Its Applications. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 241pp (in Chinese)
陈兴芳, 宋文玲. 2000b. 欧亚和青藏高原冬春季积雪与我国夏季降水关系的分析和预测应用. 高原气象, 19(2):214-223. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX200002010.htm Chen X F, Song W L. 2000b. Analysis of relationship between snow cover on Eurasia and Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in winter and summer rainfall in China and application to prediction. Plateau Meteor, 19(2):214-223 (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX200002010.htm
国家气候中心. 1998. 98中国大洪水与气候异常. 北京:气象出版社, 152pp. National Climate Center. 1998.China's 1998 Severe Flood and Climate Extremes. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 152pp (in Chinese)
李崇银, 黄荣辉, 丑纪范等. 2009. 我国重大高影响天气气候灾害及对策研究. 北京:气象出版社,187pp. Li C Y, Huang R H, Chou J F, et al. 2009. The Study of Meteorological Disasters and Chinese Response. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 187pp (in Chinese)
李维京. 1999. 1998年大气环流异常及其对中国气候异常的影响. 气象, 25(4):20-25. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX904.005.htm Li W J. 1999. General atmospheric circulation anomaly in 1998 and their impact on climate anomaly in China. Meteor Mon, 25(4):20-25(in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX904.005.htm
刘长征, 薛峰. 2010. 不同强度El Niño的衰减过程. Ⅱ:中等和较弱El Niño的衰减过程. 地球物理学报, 53(11):2564-2573. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQWX201011007.htm Liu C Z, Xue F. 2010. The decay of El Niño with different intensity. Part Ⅱ:The decay of the moderate and relatively-weak El Niño. Chinese J Geophys, 53(11):2564-2573 (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQWX201011007.htm
刘芸芸, 李维京, 艾婉秀等. 2012. 月尺度西太平洋副热带高压指数的重建与应用. 应用气象学报, 23(4):414-423. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX201204006.htm Liu Y Y, Li W J, Ai W X, et al. 2012. Reconstruction and application of the monthly western Pacific subtropical high indices. J Appl Meteor Sci, 23(4):414-423 (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX201204006.htm
罗绍华, 金祖辉, 陈烈庭. 1985. 印度洋和南海海温与长江中下游夏季降水的相关分析. 大气科学, 9(3):314-320. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK198503012.htm Luo S H, Jin Z H, Chen L T. 1985. The analysis of correlation between sea surface temperature in the Indian-China South Sea and precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River. Scientia Atmos Sinica, 9(3):314-320 (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK198503012.htm
潘静, 李崇银, 宋洁. 2010. 热带大气季节内振荡对西北太平洋台风的调制作用. 大气科学, 34(6):1059-1070. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK201006003.htm Pan J, Li C Y, Song J. 2010. The modulation of Madden-Julian oscillation on typhoons in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Chinese J Atmos Sci, 34 (6):1059-1070 (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK201006003.htm
彭京备, 陈烈庭, 张庆云. 2005. 青藏高原异常雪盖和ENSO的多尺度变化及其与中国夏季降水的关系. 高原气象, 24(3):366-377. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX200503013.htm Peng J B, Chen L T, Zhang Q Y. 2005. Multi-scale variations of snow cover over QXP and tropical Pacific SST and their influences on summer rainfall in China. Plateau Meteor, 24(3):366-377 (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX200503013.htm
任芝花, 余予, 邹凤玲等. 2012. 部分地面要素历史基础气象资料质量检测. 应用气象学报, 23(6):739-747. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX201206013.htm Ren Z H, Yu Y, Zou F L, et al. 2012. Quality detection of surface historical basic meteorological data. J Appl Meteor Sci, 23(6):739-747 (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX201206013.htm
邵勰, 周兵. 2016. 2015/2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件气候监测及诊断分析. 气象, 42(5):540-547. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX201605003.htm Shao X, Zhou B. 2016. Monitoring and diagnosis of the 2015/2016 super El Niño event. Meteor Mon, 42(5):540-547 (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX201605003.htm
王会军. 2005. 来自大气内部的季节气候可预测性初探. 大气科学, 29(1):64-70. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200501007.htm Wang H J. 2005. Preliminary research on the inner-atmosphere-originated seasonal climate predictability. Chinese J Atmos Sci, 29(1):64-70 (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200501007.htm
王钦, 李双林, 付建建等. 2012. 1998和2010年夏季降水异常成因的对比分析:兼论两类不同厄尔尼诺事件的影响. 气象学报, 70(6):1207-1222. http://www.cmsjournal.net/qxxb_cn/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20120604&flag=1 Wang Q, Li S L, Fu J J, et al. 2012. On the formation of anomalous summer precipitation in the years of 2010 and 1998:A comparison of the El Niño's impact between Modoki and typical El Niño cases. Acta Meteor Sinica, 70(6):1207-1222 (in Chinese) http://www.cmsjournal.net/qxxb_cn/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20120604&flag=1
薛峰, 刘长征. 2007. 中等强度ENSO对中国东部夏季降水的影响及其与强ENSO的对比分析. 科学通报, 52(23):2798-2805. DOI: 10.1007/s11434-008-0002-5 Xue F, Liu C Z. 2008. The influence of moderate ENSO on summer rainfall in eastern China and its comparison with strong ENSO. Chinese Sci Bull, 53(5):791-800 DOI: 10.1007/s11434-008-0002-5
袁媛, 高辉, 贾小龙等. 2016. 2014-2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件的气候影响. 气象, 42(5):532-539. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX201605002.htm Yuan Y, Gao H, Jia X L, et al. 2016. Influences of the 2014-2016 super El Niño event on climate. Meteor Mon, 42(5):532-539 (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX201605002.htm
翟盘茂, 余荣, 郭艳君等. 2016. 2015/2016年强厄尔尼诺过程及其对全球和中国气候的主要影响. 气象学报, 74(3):309-321. http://www.cmsjournal.net/qxxb_cn/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=2016049&flag=1 Zhai P M, Yu R, Guo Y J, et al. 2016. The strong El Niño in 2015/2016 and its dominant impacts on global and China's climate. Acta Meteor Sinica, 74(3):309-321 (in Chinese) http://www.cmsjournal.net/qxxb_cn/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=2016049&flag=1
张庆云, 陶诗言, 陈烈庭. 2003. 东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流. 气象学报, 61(5):559-568. http://www.cmsjournal.net/qxxb_cn/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20030505&flag=1 Zhang Q Y, Tao S Y, Chen L T. 2003. The inter-annual variability of East Asian summer monsoon indices and its association with the pattern of general circulation over East Asia. Acta Meteor Sinica, 61(5):559-568 (in Chinese) http://www.cmsjournal.net/qxxb_cn/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20030505&flag=1
张庆云, 吕俊梅, 杨莲梅等. 2007. 夏季中国降水型的年代际变化与大气内部动力过程及外强迫因子关系. 大气科学, 31(6):1290-1300. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200706024.htm Zhang Q Y, Lü J M, Yang L M, et al. 2007. The interdecadal variation of precipitation pattern over China during summer and its relationship with the atmospheric internal dynamic processes and extra-forcing factors. Chinese J Atmos Sci, 31(6):1290-1300 (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200706024.htm
张顺利, 陶诗言. 2001. 青藏高原积雪对亚洲夏季风影响的诊断及数值研究. 大气科学, 25(3):372-390. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200103008.htm Zhang S L, Tao S Y. 2001. Influences of snow cover over the Tibetan plateau on Asian summer monsoon. Chinese J Atmos Sci, 25(3):372-390 (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200103008.htm
赵振国. 1999. 中国夏季旱涝及环境场. 北京:气象出版社,112pp. Zhao Z G. 1999. Summer Drought and Flood in China and the Circulation Patterns. Beijing:China Meteorological Press,112pp (in Chinese)
左金清, 李维京, 任宏利等. 2012. 春季北大西洋涛动与东亚夏季风年际关系的转变及其可能成因分析. 地球物理学报, 55(2):384-395. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQWX201202002.htm Zuo J Q, Li W J, Ren H L, et al. 2012. Change of the relationship between spring NAO and East Asian summer monsoon and its possible mechanism. Chinese J Geophys, 55(2):384-395 (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQWX201202002.htm
Annamalai H, Xie S P, McCreary J P, et al. 2005. Impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature on developing El Niño. J Climate, 18(2):302-319 DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-3268.1
Chang A T C, Gloersen P, Schmugge T, et al. 1976. Microwave emission from snow and glacier ice. J Glaciology, 16:23-39 DOI: 10.1017/S0022143000031415
Chang A T C, Foster J L, Hall D K, et al. 1982. Snow water equivalent estimation by microwave radiometry. Cold Regions Sci Tech, 5 (3):259-267 DOI: 10.1016/0165-232X(82)90019-2
Hu K M, Huang G, Huang R H. 2011a. The impact of tropical Indian Ocean variability on summer surface air temperature in China. J Climate, 24(20):5365-5377, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4152.1
Hu Z Z, Yang S, Wu R G. 2003. Long-term climate variations in China and global warming signals. J Geophys Res, 108(D19):4614, doi: 10.1029/2003JD003651
Hu Z Z, Kumar A, Huang B H, et al. 2011b. Persistent atmospheric and oceanic anomalies in the North Atlantic from Summer 2009 to Summer 2010. J Climate, 24(22):5812-5830, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4213.1
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 77(3):437-471 DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2
Kistler R, Collins W, Saha S, et al. 2001. The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis:Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 82(2):247-268 DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0247:TNNYRM>2.3.CO;2
Klein S A, Soden B J, Lau N C. 1999. Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO:Evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge. J Climate, 12(4):917-932 DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0917:RSSTVD>2.0.CO;2
Lau N C, Nath M J. 2000. Impact of ENSO on the variability of the Asian-Australian monsoons as simulated in GCM experiments. J Climate, 13(24):4287-4309 DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<4287:IOEOTV>2.0.CO;2
Meyers G. 1996. Variation of Indonesian throughflow and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. J Geophys Res, 101(C5):12255-12263 DOI: 10.1029/95JC03729
Reynolds R W, Rayner N A, Smith T M, et al. 2002. An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Climate, 15(13):1609-1625 DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1609:AIISAS>2.0.CO;2
Saji N H, Goswami B N, Vinayachandr P N, et al. 1999. A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401(6751):360-363
Si D, Hu Z Z, Kumar A, et al. 2016. Is the interdecadal variation of the summer rainfall over eastern China associated with SST?. Climate Dyn, 46(1-2):135-146 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2574-5
Wang B, Wu R G, Fu X H. 2000. Pacific-East Asian teleconnection:How does ENSO affect East Asian climate?. J Climate, 13(9):1517-1536 DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1517:PEATHD>2.0.CO;2
Wang B, Zhang Q. 2002. Pacific-East Asian teleconnection. PartⅡ:How the Philippine Sea anomalous anticyclone is established during El Niño development. J Climate, 15(22):3252-3265
Wheeler M C, Hendon H H. 2004. An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index:Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon Wea Rev, 132(8):1917-1932 DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1917:AARMMI>2.0.CO;2
Wu R G, Kirtman B P. 2004. Understanding the impacts of the Indian Ocean on ENSO variability in a coupled GCM. J Climate, 17(20):4019-4031 DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<4019:UTIOTI>2.0.CO;2
Wu Z W, Wang B, Li J P, et al. 2009. An empirical seasonal prediction model of the East Asian summer monsoon using ENSO and NAO. J Geophys Res, 114(D18):D18120, doi: 10.1029/2009JD011733
Xie S P, Hu K M, Hafner J, et al. 2009. Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño. J Climate, 22(3):730-747 DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2544.1
Yang J L, Liu Q Y, Xie S P, et al. 2007. Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett, 34(2):L02708, doi: 10.1029/2006GL028571
Yuan Y, Zhou W, Chan J C L, et al. 2008. Impacts of the basin-wide Indian Ocean SSTA on the South China Sea summer monsoon onset. Int J Climatol, 28(12):1579-1587 DOI: 10.1002/joc.v28:12
Yuan Y, Yang S, Zhang Z Q. 2012. Different evolutions of the Philippine Sea anticyclone between the Eastern and Central Pacific El Niño:Possible effects of Indian Ocean SST. J Climate, 25(22):7867-7883 DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00004.1
Yuan Y, Li C Y, Yang S. 2014a. Decadal anomalies of winter precipitation over Southern China in association with El Niño and La Niña. J Meteor Res, 28(1):91-110
Yuan Y, Yang H, Li C Y. 2014b. Possible influences of the tropical Indian Ocean dipole on the eastward propagation of MJO. J Trop Meteor, 20(2):173-180
Zhang R H, Sumi A, Kimoto M. 1999. A diagnostic study of the impact of El Niño on the precipitation in China. Adv Atmos Sci, 16(2):229-241 DOI: 10.1007/BF02973084
Zhou L T, Tam C Y, Zhou W, et al. 2010a. Influence of South China Sea SST and the ENSO on winter rainfall over South China. Adv Atmos Sci, 27(4):832-844 DOI: 10.1007/s00376-009-9102-7
Zhou L T, Wu R G. 2010b. Respective impacts of the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO on winter rainfall in China. J Geophys Res, 115(D2):D02107, doi: 10.1029/2009JD012502
Zhou L T. 2011. Impact of East Asian winter monsoon on rainfall over southeastern China and its dynamical process. Int J Climatol, 31(5):677-686 DOI: 10.1002/joc.v31.5
Zuo J Q, Li W J, Sun C H, et al. 2013. Impact of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature tripole on the East Asian summer monsoon. Adv Atmos Sci, 30(4):1173-1186 DOI: 10.1007/s00376-012-2125-5
下载:
计量
- 文章访问数: 2544
- HTML全文浏览量: 54
- PDF下载量: 2122
