Abstract:
In the context of global warming, the climate over the Yangtze-Huai River Valley (YHRV, 28°-34°N, 110°-122°E) of China tends to be more complicated. The climate prediction during the Meiyu period over the YHRV is a scientific issue that needs to be solved urgently. We investigate the response of the climate during the Meiyu period over the YHRV in recent decades in this study. Through assessing the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models over the YHRV Region, the surface air temperature and precipitation over this region during the 21 century are predicted under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 scenarios basing on simulations of 22 CMIP5 models. The related mechanism is studied as well. The result shows that under the background of global warming, climate in the YHRV during the Meiyu period has been undergoing corresponding changes. The surface air temperature during the Meiyu period over the YHRV shows an increasing trend at the rate of 0.40℃/(10 a), and the precipitation adjusts correspondingly at the same time. The precipitation becomes relatively more in the warm years but less in the cold years. With global warming in the future, averaged temperature and precipitation during the Meiyu period over the YHRV would further increase, and the spatial distribution of precipitation would become more inhomogeneous.