Abstract:
Based on the dryness/wetness indices at 19 sites in eastern China (30°—40°N, east of 105°E) during 1470—2019 and quantitative indices of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Nino3.4 reconstructed from paleoclimate proxy data, the characteristics of dryness/wetness variation in eastern China and its relationship with the Pacific sea surface temperature are analyzed using empirical orthogonal function, wavelet analysis and ensemble empirical mode decomposition. The results are as follows: (1) The primary pattern of dryness/wetness shows a monopole mode, with the same anomaly in entire eastern China with a major variation center located in the middle and lower reaches of Yellow River (variance contribution ratio is 25.2%). A quasi-periodic variation of 10—30 a in the whole region is revealed by wavelet analysis and ensemble empirical mode decomposition analysis. The long-term trend of the principal mode shows that entire eastern China was wet in the 17 and 18 centuries, and experienced a drought trend since the 19 century. (2) The monopole and its 10—20 a variation are particularly significant in the two cold stages (from the early to middle 17 century and from the middle to late 19 century), when the variance contribution can reach up to about 35%—40%. Meanwhile, the variation center is located further north in cold periods, and further south or west in warm periods. (3) The interdecadal variation of dryness/wetness in eastern China is related to the sea surface temperature anomaly in the North Pacific and the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. The wetness (dryness) corresponds to the cold (warm) phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the interdecadal abnormal low (high) sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region from November of the previous year to January of the current year. In the cold period of the little Ice Age, the interdecadal variation of dryness/wetness may be more closely related to sea surface temperature anomaly in the Nino3.4 region.