1470—2019年中国东部旱涝年代际变化及其与太平洋海表温度的关系

Interdecadal variation of dryness/wetness in eastern China and its relationship with the Pacific sea surface temperature during 1470—2019

  • 摘要: 基于中国东部地区(30°—40°N,105°E以东)19个代表站1470—2019年旱涝等级序列、古气候代用资料定量重建的北太平洋海表温度年代际振荡指数以及Nino3.4指数,通过经验正交函数分解、小波分析和集合经验模态分解方法分析了中国东部旱涝年代际变化特征及其与太平洋海温的关系。结果表明,(1)1470年以来中国东部旱涝变化的主模态为全区一致型(方差贡献率为25.2%),变率中心主要位于黄河中下游,其时间系数的小波分析和集合经验模态分解揭示出全区旱涝存在10—30 a的准周期;该模态长期趋势揭示17—18世纪中国东部整体偏涝,而19世纪以后出现干旱化趋势。(2)寒冷背景下中国东部旱涝一致变化更明显,在17世纪前、中期和19世纪中、后期的小冰期寒冷期全区一致型模态的方差贡献率为35%—40%,且这两个时段10—30 a的年代际变化信号尤为显著;而旱涝的变率中心则表现出冷期偏北,暖期偏南或偏西的特征。(3)中国东部旱涝的年代际变化与北太平洋和赤道中东太平洋海表温度异常有关,表现为偏涝(旱)气候对应于北太平洋海表温度年代际振荡的冷(暖)相位,以及年代际尺度上的冬季Nino3.4区海表温度的异常偏低(高);在小冰期的寒冷期,旱涝的年代际变化可能与Nino3.4区海表温度异常关系更密切。

     

    Abstract: Based on the dryness/wetness indices at 19 sites in eastern China (30°—40°N, east of 105°E) during 1470—2019 and quantitative indices of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Nino3.4 reconstructed from paleoclimate proxy data, the characteristics of dryness/wetness variation in eastern China and its relationship with the Pacific sea surface temperature are analyzed using empirical orthogonal function, wavelet analysis and ensemble empirical mode decomposition. The results are as follows: (1) The primary pattern of dryness/wetness shows a monopole mode, with the same anomaly in entire eastern China with a major variation center located in the middle and lower reaches of Yellow River (variance contribution ratio is 25.2%). A quasi-periodic variation of 10—30 a in the whole region is revealed by wavelet analysis and ensemble empirical mode decomposition analysis. The long-term trend of the principal mode shows that entire eastern China was wet in the 17 and 18 centuries, and experienced a drought trend since the 19 century. (2) The monopole and its 10—20 a variation are particularly significant in the two cold stages (from the early to middle 17 century and from the middle to late 19 century), when the variance contribution can reach up to about 35%—40%. Meanwhile, the variation center is located further north in cold periods, and further south or west in warm periods. (3) The interdecadal variation of dryness/wetness in eastern China is related to the sea surface temperature anomaly in the North Pacific and the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. The wetness (dryness) corresponds to the cold (warm) phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the interdecadal abnormal low (high) sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region from November of the previous year to January of the current year. In the cold period of the little Ice Age, the interdecadal variation of dryness/wetness may be more closely related to sea surface temperature anomaly in the Nino3.4 region.

     

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