基于深度学习的天气雷达回波序列外推及效果分析

Extrapolation and effect analysis of weather radar echo sequence based on deep learning

  • 摘要: 天气雷达探测资料是进行强对流天气临近预报的主要参考数据。针对传统雷达回波外推方法中存在资料信息利用率不足和外推时效有限的问题,文中利用神经网络进行雷达回波的外推、利用预测神经网络模型进行2 h以内的回波变化预报。回波外推问题的关键是回波时、空序列预测问题,该网络具有解决时间记忆问题的长、短时记忆单元(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)和提取空间特征的卷积模块。应用福建、江苏和河南多年的雷达探测资料构造训练和测试数据集。为消除降水的不平衡和提高对强回波的预报准确率,网络采用带权重的损失函数进行训练。对光流法和预测神经网络进行测试集检验以及个例分析,结果表明,在相同外推时效和检验反射率阈值的情况下,预测神经网络的临界成功指数、命中率均高于光流法,虚警率低于光流法。不同类型降水预测神经网络的SSIM值(structural similarity)均高于光流法,且层状云降水的SSIM值比对流云降水的大。因此,预测神经网络对强回波的预报能力高于光流法;在预报时效性上,预测神经网络模型具有一定的优越性;预测神经网络对层状云降水预报的准确率比对流云降水的高。

     

    Abstract: Weather radar data is the main reference for nowcasting of severe convective weather. To address the problems of insufficient data utilization and limited extrapolation time in the radar echo extrapolation method widely used in China, the neural network is applied to radar echo extrapolation. The predictive neural network model gives 2 h prediction results of radar echo variation. The essence of radar echo extrapolation problem is the spatiotemporal sequence prediction problem. The network has long and short time memory unit (Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM) to solve the time memory problem and convolutional layers to extract spatial features. The training and testing datasets are constructed using radar data from Fujian, Jiangsu and Henan for several years. Considering the fact that the frequencies of different rainfall levels are highly imbalanced, the network is trained by weighted loss function to improve the prediction accuracy of strong echoes. The test set and individual case evaluation show that CSI (Critical Succes Index) and POD (Probability Of Detection) of predictive neural network are higher than that of optical flow method and FAR (False Alarm Ratio) is lower than that of optical flow method under the same extrapolation aging and reflectivity threshold. Among different precipitation types, the SSIM (structural similarity) value of the predictive neural network is higher than that of the optical flow method, and the SSIM value of the stratiform-cloud precipitation is larger than that of the convective-cloud precipitation. Therefore, the predictive neural network has a better ability to predict strong echoes than optical flow. In terms of the timeliness of forecasting, the predictive neural network model has certain advantages, and it is more accurate in forecasting stratiform-cloud precipitation than forecasting convective-cloud precipitation.

     

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