Abstract:
In order to reveal the climate change impact on the region suitable for
Coffea arabica growth in Yunnan province, based on the Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model combined with the species distribution data and environmental variable data of
Coffea arabica, an assessment and prediction model is constructed to evaluate the region suitable for
Coffea arabica growth in Yunnan province under current climatic condition and predict the distribution of regions suitable for
Coffea arabica growth under future climate condition. The prediction is analyzed. The results are as follows. (1) The constructed MaxEnt model can be used for the assessment and prediction of regions suitable for
Coffea arabica growth in Yunnan province. Under current climate condition, the AUC (Area under ROC Curve) values of the training set and the test set of the evaluation model both are 0.941, and the evaluation result meets the standard of "Excellence". (2) The dominant environmental factors affecting the cultivation of
Coffea arabica in Yunnan province are the average maximum temperature in November, rainfall in July, altitude, average minimum temperature in February, rainfall in October, mountain slope, and minimum temperature in the coldest month. The contribution rate is 91.4%. (3) Under current climatic condition, the regions suitable for Coffea arabica growth are mainly distributed in western Yunnan, southwestern Yunnan and Baoshan, Dehong, Pu'er, Lincang, Xishuangbanna and other areas in southern Yunnan. The total size of areas suitable for
Coffea arabica growth is about 116300 km
2, which accounts for 29.51% of the land area in Yunnan. In general, there are moderately suitable areas around the periphery of highly suitable regions, and less suitable areas are distributed around the periphery of moderately suitable areas. Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the total areas suitable for
Coffea arabica growth are about 98300 km
2 and 69700 km
2, accounting for 24.95% and 17.69% of the land area of Yunnan province, respectively. The areas of suitable regions would decrease by 18000 km
2 and 46600 km
2, and their proportions of land area would decrease by 4.56% and 11.82%, respectively. The center of the overall suitable region would migrate from southeast to northwest. Compared with that under the RCP4.5 scenario, the migration under the RCP8.5 scenario extends further northwest. (4) Future climate change will lead to decreases in the total area suitable for
Coffea arabica growth in Yunnan province. The center of the overall suitable region would shift to higher altitudes and higher latitudes, and the magnitude of such changes is larger under higher carbon emission scenarios.