沿海城市极端气温对脑卒中死亡的滞后定量影响

Quantitative lagged effects of extreme temperature on stroke deaths in a coastal city

  • 摘要: 当夏季和冬季出现极端气温时,脑卒中死亡有明显增加,但不同地区极端气温对脑卒中死亡的影响不同。以宁波为沿海城市的代表,采用2013—2019年宁波市脑卒中死亡病例和同期的气温数据,利用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM),研究了极端气温对不同群组脑卒中死亡的滞后定量影响。结果表明:(1)极端高温对除低龄组外的其他人群脑卒中死亡效应趋势基本一致,即累积相对危险度(RR)及95%置信区间(95%CI)随时间延长增大,热累积促进效应随时间增强,对全部人群滞后3 d内的脑卒中死亡有促进效应。40℃滞后0—1 d、0—2 d和0—3 d累积相对危险度(95%CI)分别为1.29(1.17—1.43)、1.38(1.22—1.55)和1.41(1.25—1.60)。(2)极端低温对不同人群脑卒中死亡促进效应趋势不同,对于全部人群,当天没有明显的促进效应,滞后第3到4天开始有明显的促进效应,累积相对危险度(95%CI)随时间增大,低温累积促进效应随时间增强,滞后15 d后对脑卒中死亡无明显的促进效应。−4℃滞后0—5 d、0—10 d和0—15 d累积相对危险度(95%CI)分别为1.23(1.00—1.50)、1.61(1.22—2.12)和1.95(1.39—2.75)。(3)极端气温对高龄组(≥65岁)脑卒中死亡的促进风险更高,对低龄组没有明显的促进或抑制效应。极端高温对男性热累积促进效应更强,极端低温对女性累积促进效应更强。

     

    Abstract: When extreme temperature occurs in summer or winter, the number of stroke deaths increases significantly. Extreme temperature has different effects on stroke death in different regions. This study takes Ningbo as a representative coastal city and the data of stroke deaths and temperature in Ningbo from 2013 to 2019 are used. Using the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM), the quantitative lagged effects of extreme temperature on stroke death in different groups of people are studied. Results are as follows: (1) The effect of extreme high temperature is basically the same for all the groups except the young group. The cumulative relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) increases with time, indicating that the cumulative lagged effect of heat effect increases with time. It has a 3 d lagged effect on stroke death for all groups. The cumulative relative risk (95%CI) at 0—1 d, 0—2 d and 0—3 d lags at 40℃ are 1.29 (1.17—1.43), 1.38 (1.22—1.55) and 1.41 (1.25—1.60). (2) The effect of extreme low temperature has different trends in stroke death for different groups. For all the groups, there is no obvious lagged effect on the first day. There is an obvious lagged effect from the third to the fourth days. The cumulative relative risk and 95%CI increases with time, indicating that the cumulative lagged effect of cold effect increases with time. There is no significant lagged effect on stroke death after 15 days. The cumulative relative risk (95%CI) at 0—5 d, 0—10 d and 0—15 d lags at −4℃ are 1.23 (1.00—1.50), 1.61 (1.22—2.12) and 1.95 (1.39—2.75). (3) For different subgroups, extreme temperature poses higher risk on stroke death in the elder group (≥65 years old), and has no obvious effect in the younger group. Extreme high temperature leads to higher risk on stroke death for men than for women, while extreme low temperature poses higher risk on stroke death for women than for men.

     

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