Abstract:
To evaluate the effects of exposure to high temperature, heatwave and sultry weather on the number of cardiovascular disease deaths. Using the generalized additive model (GAM) and smoothed curve threshold effect method, the relationship between different heat-sensitive weather exposures on the number of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular deaths in Shijiazhuang from June to August, 2009 to 2016 was analyzed. After controlling for the confounding effects of long-term trends in time series, seasonal effects and holiday effects, the impact of sub-population of male and female was analyzed. A total of 6552 cardiovascular and cerebrovascular deaths were collected during the study period, with an average of 10.2 deaths per day and a maximum of 40.0 deaths per day. During the corresponding period, there were 98 d of high temperature, 58 d of heatwave and 79 d of muggy day. The relative risk of the effect of hot, heatwave and sultry weather on the number of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular deaths relative to the non-hot, heatwave and sultry days was 1.086 (95%CI: 1.013—1.164), 1.252 (95%CI: 1.101—1.442) and 1.100 (95%CI: 1.020—1.185) with maximum lagged effects of 3 d, 1 d and 0 d, corresponding to an increased risk of death of 12.2%, 31.8% and 10.0%, respectively, and all with a greater risk of effect for women than men. High temperature, heatwave, and sultry weather can all lead to an increased risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular death, with the most significant risk of death attributable to heatwaves. No lag effect was found for the risk of death attributable to sultry weather. It was recommended that health risk management and coping mechanisms be tailored to different heat-sensitive weather.