S2S模式对四川汛期候尺度降水预测技巧评估和误差订正

Evaluation of forecast skills and error correction of S2S models for pentad precipitation anomaly in Sichuan province during rainy season

  • 摘要: 针对四川汛期候降水距平百分率(PAP),采用距平相关系数(ACC)、时间相关系数(TCC)、符号一致率(SCR)和趋势异常综合评分(PS)4种预测评分方法对S2S计划中10个模式的预测技巧进行检验评估,并在误差分析的基础上提出“正负概率异常订正”方案对各模式候降水距平百分率预测结果进行订正。结果表明,随着预测时效延长,多数模式的预测技巧快速降低,模式间预测技巧的差距缩小。至第10天左右,各模式进入低技巧时段,预测技巧随时效变化的幅度减小,各模式仅对降水趋势异常有一定预测能力,其中BoM模式明显高于其他模式。除BoM模式外的其他模式对降水年际变化幅度都存在低估,降水距平百分率异常偏差为−33%—−18%,不随预测时效发生太大变化,但空间分布不均。经过误差订正各模式的距平相关系数和符号一致率有所提高,趋势异常综合评分有效提高,并且对次季节尺度的订正效果优于天气尺度。订正后,各模式在次季节尺度的平均趋势异常综合评分均高于76.8, 66.7%的模式评分为79.2—80.2,超过业务评分标准(72.0)近8分。订正效果在4 a独立样本检验中也得到验证。

     

    Abstract: In this paper, anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), time correlation coefficient (TCC), symbol consistency rate (SCR) and trend anomaly comprehensive score (PS) are used to evaluate the prediction skills of ten models in the S2S plan for pentad precipitation anomaly percentage (PAP) in Sichuan province during rainy season. Based on model bias analysis, a "correction of positive and negative probability anomaly" scheme was proposed to improve the model forecast. The results show the prediction skills of most models decrease rapidly, and the gap of prediction skills among these models narrows with increasing forecast lead-time. At around the 10th day, all the models enter the low skill period with little changes with lead-time. The models only have a certain ability to predict the abnormal trend of precipitation, and the BoM model has the best skill among these models. All the models except the BoM underestimate the anomaly degree of precipitation trend. The anomaly deviations of predicted PAP by these models are from −33% to −18% and invariant with the lead-time, but they are unevenly distributed in space. After error correction, ACC, SCR and PS of each model are improved, especially PS. The correction effect on the sub-seasonal scale is better than that on the synoptic scale. After modification, the average PS scores of all models on the sub-seasonal scale are higher than 76.8, of which 66.7% are within the range 79.2—80.2, nearly 8 points higher than the business-scoring standard (72.0). This correction effect has also been verified in 4-year independent sample tests.

     

/

返回文章
返回