基于均一化数据的1960—2021年中国蒸发皿蒸发量时空变化特征

Characteristics of tempo-spatial variations of pan evaporation in China during 1960—2021 based on a homogenized dataset

  • 摘要: 基于序列均一性多元分析(MASH)和Climatol均一化方法,对1960—2021年中国573个气象站逐月蒸发皿蒸发量(PE)观测数据进行非均一化检验与订正,通过对比两种方法检测到的非均一性台站数、断点数、订正幅度等,定量评估均一化结果的不确定性。基于等权重集合均一化逐月蒸发皿蒸发量序列数据集揭示了近60年中国年、季节蒸发皿蒸发量的时、空演变特征。结果表明:MASH和Climatol均能有效检测出逐月序列中的非均一性断点,前者检测到的非均一性台站数较少、断点数较多但订正幅度较小。集合均一化序列表明:1960—2021年中国平均的冬、秋季蒸发皿蒸发量增大速率分别为0.27和1.10 mm/(10 a),春、夏季和全年的下降速率分别为8.38、9.83和16.83 mm/(10 a)。订正后蒸发皿蒸发量在春、夏季和全年大部分观测站呈下降趋势,分别占81.7%、80.8%和80.3%,冬、秋季多呈上升趋势,分别占57.1%和60.4%。冬季在东北、青藏高原东部、华南、西南(云南除外)地区呈上升趋势;春季除华东沿海、陕西南部、川渝北部及湖北西部等地区外,其他大部分地区均呈下降趋势;夏季大部分地区呈下降趋势,特别是华北以南的东部地区;秋季除东北西北部、新疆西北部、内蒙古中部延伸至青藏高原东部一带呈下降趋势外,其他地区呈上升趋势;全年在新疆西北部、内蒙古中部、山东、河北南部及河南、云南中部等地区呈下降趋势。与订正前相比,冬、夏季变化趋弱,春、秋季和全年变化趋强;季节、年变化趋势范围均缩小,下降速率小于10 mm/(10 a)或上升速率大于30 mm/(10 a)的站数均减少,大尺度变化趋势的空间一致性趋好。春、秋、冬季及全年蒸发皿蒸发量分别在1977、2018和2020、2020及1972年存在突变,夏季不存在突变。

     

    Abstract: Based on the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization (MASH) and Climatol homogenization methods, the inhomogeneities in monthly pan evaporation (PE) time series at 573 stations in China during 1960—2021 are detected, estimated, and adjusted. The uncertainties due to different methods are quantitatively evaluated with regard to the number of inhomogeneous stations, breakpoints and shift values. Temporal and spatial variation characteristics in seasonal and annual PE in recent 62 years are revealed based on ensemble homogenized dataset. The results show that compared with Climatol, MASH can detect fewer inhomogeneous stations, more break points but with smaller range of adjustments. The homogenized data indicate that the regional mean spring, summer, and annual PE series show significant decreasing trends with rates of 8.38, 9.83 and 16.83 mm/(10 a), respectively, whereas the winter and autumn series show weak increasing trends of up to 0.27 and 1.10 mm/(10 a), respectively. The rate of change trend tends to be weaker in winter and summer but stronger in spring, autumn and annual. The increase trends occurs at over half stations in winter (57.1% stations) and autumn (60.4% stations), and these stations are mainly located in northeastern and southwestern (except Yunnan) China, the eastern Tibetan Plateau, southern China in winter. In autumn, the stations with increase trend are located at the area from northeastern China to Yunnan, the Tibetan Plateau, and most parts of Xinjiang. On the contrary, the decrease trend prevail at 81.7% stations in spring, especially in Yunnan and over the area from northeastern China to Shandong. 80.8% stations of stations experience the decrease trend in summer in the eastern part to the south of North China. Annual PE shows a decrease trend at 80.3% of stations that are mainly located in northwestern Xinjiang, the central Inner Mongolia, Shandong, southern Hebei, Henan and central Yunnan. The ranges of seasonal and annual trends decrease after adjustment. The number of stations with the rate of decreasing trend less than 10 mm/(10 a) or increasing trend greater than 30 mm/(10 a) decreases, indicating a better spatial consistency of large-scale changes of PE in China after homogenization. Abrupt changes of seasonal PE occurred in the spring of 1977, the autumn of 2018 and the winter of 2020 while an abrupt change of annual PE occurred in 1972 in China. No abrupt change occurred in summer.

     

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