Assessment of intraseasonal characteristics of precipitation over East Asia in the GRIST model summer climate hindcast
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摘要: 基于中国自主研发的全球-区域一体化预测系统（GRIST）模式，分析了其在夏季气候回报试验中的东亚地区夏季降水气候特征，重点关注季节内尺度的变化。通过与格点融合分析数据（CMPA）、卫星观测数据（GPM）及两个全球气候模式（CAM5和SPCAM5）结果进行比较，检验模式性能并探究模式间的差异。结果表明，GRIST模式能较好地模拟出西北太平洋及中国东部地区季节内降水变化及其演变过程，但模拟的降水变化幅度和雨量与观测相比偏高。进一步探究其内部影响，发现小时尺度视热源（Q1）、视水汽汇（Q2）和大尺度垂直速度等在垂直剖面上随时间的变化皆与模拟降水的演变对应。模式能准确地再现雨带和副热带高压脊线的位置及其向北推进过程，并能基本抓住大气季节内振荡（ISO）经向北传特征。但ISO传播强度、周期等与观测存在较大差异。这可能与纬向风移动路径较远、持续时间较长有关。Abstract: Based on the seasonal climate hindcast experiment of the Global-to-Regional Integrated forecast SysTem (GRIST) model, the simulated climate features of East Asian summer precipitation are analyzed with emphasis on the intraseasonal variation. Compared with the China Merged hourly Precipitation Analysis (CMPA) grid fusion analysis dataset, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite dataset and results of two global climate models, i.e., the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) and the SuperParameterized CAM5 (SPCAM5), this study evaluates the simulation results and explores the inter-model differences. Results show that the GRIST can better simulate seasonal variation and evolution of precipitation over the Northwest Pacific Ocean and eastern China, but the magnitude of precipitation variation and rainfall amount are higher than the observed values. It is shown that precipitation evolution closely corresponds to daily mean vertical variations of hourly apparent heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2) and large-scale vertical velocity. The model can accurately reproduce the location and northward progression of rain belt and the subtropical high ridge line, and overall can capture the northward propagation of the Intrasesonal Oscillation (ISO). However, the intensity and period of the ISO propagation are quite different from the observations possibly due to the long moving path and duration of zonal wind.
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Keywords:
- Global model /
- East Asia /
- Precipitation /
- Interseasonal oscillation
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图 1 不同数据源 （a. GPM，b. CAM5，c. SPCAM5，d. GRIST-NWP） 给出的东亚地区夏季 （6—8月） 平均降水量 （单位：mm/d；色阶表示各组数据与CMPA的偏差，右上角数字分别表示不同模式与CMPA的空间相关系数）
Figure 1. Summer （June to August） mean precipitation amounts （unit：mm/d） over East Asia from the （a） GPM data，（b） CAM5 simulation，（c） SPCAM5 simulation，and （d） GRIST-NWP simulation （differences between each group data and CMPA result are indicated by color shadings，the numbers in the upper right corners of the panels respectively represent the spatial correlation coefficients between results of the corresponding models and CMPA data）
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图 2 不同数据源 （a. CMPA，b. GPM，c. CAM5，d. SPCAM5，e. GRIST-NWP） 给出的东亚地区夏季内 （6—8月） 旬平均降水的标准差分布 （单位：mm/d）
Figure 2. Standard deviations of intra-summer （June to August） 10-day-averaged precipitation rate （unit：mm/d） from the （a） CMPA data，（b） GPM data，（c） CAM5 simulation，（d） SPCAM5 simulation，and （e） GRIST-NWP simulation
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图 3 不同数据源 （a. CMPA， b. GPM， c. CAM5， d. SPCAM5， e. GRIST-NWP） 给出的中国东部地区 （25°—40°N，105°—118°E） 平均降水逐旬演变 （单位：mm/d）
Figure 3. Average precipitation changes at 10-day interval over eastern China （25°—40°N，105°—118°E） （unit：mm/d） from the （a） CMPA data，（b） GPM data，（c） CAM5 simulation，（d） SPCAM5 simulation，and （e） GRIST-NWP simulation
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图 4 各模式模拟的Q1 （a—c）和Q2 （d—f） （23°—33°N，108°—118°E） 区域平均的垂直-时间剖面 （单位：K/d；a、d. CAM5，b、e. SPCAM5，c、f. GRIST-NWP）
Figure 4. Vertical-time corss sections of daily mean Q1 （a—c） and Q2 （d—f） over （23°—33°N，108°—118°E ）（unit：K/d） from the （a，d） CAM5 simulation，（b，e） SPCAM5 simulation and （c，f） GRIST-NWP simulation
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图 5 各模式模拟的水汽垂直平流 （a—c） 和温度垂直平流 （d—f） 倾向 （23°—33°N，108°—118°E） 区域平均的垂直-时间剖面 （单位：K/d；a、d. CAM5，b、e. SPCAM5，c、f. GRIST-NWP）
Figure 5. Vertical-time ccorss sections of vertical water vapor advection tendency （a—c） and vertical temperature advection tendency （d—f） over （23°—33°N，108°—118°E） （unit：K/d；a，d. CAM5 simulation，b，e. SPCAM5 simulation，c，f. GRIST-NWP simulation）
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图 6 不同数据源 （a. ERA5，b. CAM5，c. SPCAM5，d. GRIST-NWP） 给出的大尺度垂直速度沿 （23°—33°N，108°—118°E） 区域平均的垂直-时间剖面 （单位：10−2 Pa/s）
Figure 6. Vertical-time corss sections of averaged large-scale vertical velocity over （23°—33°N，108°—118°E ）（unit：10−2 Pa/s） from the （a） ERA5 data，（b） CAM5 simulation，（c） SPCAM5 simulation，and （d） GRIST-NWP simulation
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图 7 不同数据源 （a. CMPA， b. GPM， c. CAM5， d. SPCAM5， e. GRIST-NWP） 给出的东亚地区雨带移动示意 （以3 mm/d平均降水量等值线表示雨带，其中6月1—15日为橙线，6月16日—7月15日为红线，7月16日—8月15日为蓝线，8月16—31日为绿线。注：此图经过了图像过滤处理，去除了部分区域非线性带状等值线，仅保留带状主雨带）
Figure 7. Diagram of rain belt movement over East Asia （ the corresponding 3 mm/d precipitation contour line averaged over the periods 1—15 June （orange solid line），16 June—15 July （red solid line），16 July—15 August （blue solid line），and 16—31 August （green solid line） from the （a） CMPA data，（b） GPM data，（c） CAM5 simulation，（d） SPCAM5 simulation，and （e） GRIST-NWP simulation （Note that the image has been filtered to remove small scale signals）
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图 8 不同数据源 （a. ERA5，b. CAM5，c. SPCAM5，d. GRIST-NWP ） 给出的500 hPa西北太平洋副热带高压脊线位置 （单位：gpm；以
∂u/∂y＞0 且u=0 的等值线表示脊线，其中6月1—15日为橙线，6月16日—7月15日为红线，7月16日—8月15日为蓝线，8月16—31日为绿线；数字表示西北太平洋副热带高压的强度Is ）Figure 8. Diagram of intraseasonal evolution of 500 hPa NPSH ridge （unit：gpm；when
∂u/∂y＞0 andu=0 ，the corresponding contour line represents the ridge over periods 1—15 June （orange solid line），16 June—15 July （red solid line），16 July—15 August （blue solid line），and 16—31 August （green solid line）） from the （a） ERA5 data，（b） CAM5 simulation，（c） SPCAM5 simulation，and （d） GRIST-NWP simulation （the numbers in the figure areIs that represent the intensity of NPSH）![]()
图 9 不同数据源 （a. CMPA，b. GPM，c. CAM5，d. SPCAM5，e. GRIST-NWP） 给出的经30—60 d带通滤波后的平均降水沿108°—118°E的纬度-时间剖面 （单位：mm/d）
Figure 9. Latitude-time cross sections of mean precipitation rate between 108°E and 118°E after 30—60 d band-pass filtering （unit：mm/d） from the （a） CMPA data，（b） GPM data，（c） CAM5 simulation，（d） SPCAM5 simulation，and （e） GRIST-NWP simulation
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图 10 不同数据源给出的850 hPa风 （a、c、e、g. 纬向风平均， b、d、f、h. 经向风平均） 沿108°—118°E的纬度-时间剖面 （单位：m/s； a、b. ERA5， c、d. CAM5， e、f. SPCAM5， g、h. GRIST-NWP）
Figure 10. Latitude-time cross sections of 850 hPa wind speed （a，c，e，g. mean zonal wind；b，d，f，h. mean meridional wind） averaged between 108°E and 118°E （unit：m/s） from the （a，b） ERA5 data，（c，d） CAM5 simulation，（e，f） SPCAM5 simulation，and （g，h） GRIST-NWP simulation
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