北京地区温度预报对心脑血管疾病的健康影响及经济效益评估

Health impact and economic benefit of temperature forecast on cardiovascular mortality in Beijing

  • 摘要: 研究证实不适温度能增加人群因心脑血管疾病死亡,但温度预报在不适温度-死亡暴露反应关系中的调节作用及经济价值尚未见报道。本研究以北京观象台(No.54511)的监测数据和北京市逐日心脑血管疾病死亡数据为依据,对2006—2016年北京市气象台对公众发布温度预报数据进行准确性检验,利用分布滞后模型构建了准确预报、高估和低估时温度与北京市心脑血管疾病死亡的暴露反应关系,并以主观预估为基准评估了温度预报的健康效应,最后运用调整后的人力资本法估算了温度预报在减少心脑血管疾病健康风险方面的经济价值。结果发现:2006—2016年,北京市气象台发布的白天最高气温准确率明显提升,以偏差不超过2℃为划分依据的准确率由60%提升至84%;暴露反应关系的研究表明准确预报时不适温度所造成的最大单日相对风险有所降低;基于人们将依据前一日实际温度形成主观预估温度的假设发现,主观预估的准确率基本保持稳定;根据温度预报和主观预估的差异,识别出北京市温度预报所减少的心脑血管疾病单日最大超额死亡人数呈上升趋势,每年减少114—457人;经济学评估发现北京市温度预报对心脑血管疾病健康影响的经济收益由2006年的1.21亿元上升至2016年的11.31亿元,降低了人群心脑血管疾病风险,具有显著的经济价值。

     

    Abstract: It has been agreed that adverse temperature can increase cardiovascular mortality. However, the role and economic value of weather forecasts in moderating the exposure response relationship between temperature and mortality have not been reported. Therefore, based on observation data collected at Beijing meteorological station (No.54511) and daily cardiovascular mortality in Beijing, this study tests the accuracy of temperature forecasts released by the Beijing Meteorological Observatory from 2006 to 2016, constructs an exposure response relationship between temperature and cardiovascular morbidity in Beijing by the distribution lag model under three scenarios, i.e., when temperature is accurately predicted, overestimated and underestimated, and evaluates the health effect of weather forecast based on subjective estimate. Finally, the adjusted human capital method is used to estimate the economic value of weather forecasts in reducing the health risk of cardiovascular morbidity. The results show that the accuracy of the daytime maximum temperature has been significantly improved in the past 11 years, and the accuracy based on the deviation of no more than 2℃ has increased from 60% to 84%. The study of the exposure response relationship shows that the maximum daily relative risk caused by adverse temperature can be reduced when it is accurately predicted. Based on the assumption that people would subjectively estimate temperature from actual temperature of the previous day, it is found that the accuracy of subjective prediction basically remains stable from 2006 to 2016. According to the differences between weather forecasts and subjective estimates, it is recognized that the maximum daily excess death toll of cardiovascular morbidity reduced by the weather forecast in Beijing showed an upward trend from 2006 to 2016, and the annual decrease was between 114 and 457. Economic evaluation reveals that the economic value of the health impact of temperature prediction on cardiovascular morbidity in Beijing increased from 121 million yuan in 2006 to 1131 million yuan in 2016.

     

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