台风快速增强爆发前后的背景环流和热力动力条件的演变

Evolution of environmental circulation and dynamic and thermodynamic conditions before and after the onset of typhoon rapid intensification

  • 摘要: 使用1949—2020年中国气象局上海台风研究所热带气旋最佳路径资料和1991—2020年欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA-Interim再分析资料,利用200和850 hPa风场分量(uv)联合经验正交函数(EOF)分解,归纳了台风快速增强(简称RI)爆发前后的环流特征以及环境动力和热力条件的演变。结果表明,台风快速增强爆发时的EOF分解主分量低层为季风汇合型,有利于台风低层水汽输送,高层环流有明显的出流通道,可作为台风快速增强预报的典型环流形势;海表温度、水汽和对流不稳定等热力条件,以及环境风垂直切变和表征台风高层出流的高空辐散等动力条件一般能达到台风增强所需要素的适值范围。台风从一般增强到快速增强转变过程中,有利于台风增强的各环境因子并没有显著变化或突变,且有极端个例的环境因子向不利于台风增强趋势变化。该研究为今后台风快速增强预报和进一步研究提供了参考。

     

    Abstract: Using the tropical cyclone best track data from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration for the period 1949—2020 and the reanalysis interim data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim) for the period 1991—2020, the EOF combination analysis of u and v components of the wind field on the 200 and 850 hPa is conducted to summarize characteristics of larger-scale environmental circulation at the onset of typhoon rapid intensification and the evolutions of environmental dynamic and thermal conditions before and after the onset are further analyzed. The results indicate that in lower levels, the main environmental circulation of EOF decomposition is the confluence pattern of monsoon trough at the onset of typhoon irapid ntensification, and the circulation is conducive to low-level water vapor transport. The upper-level circulation shows obvious typhoon outflow channels, and this characteristic can be used as a typical circulation pattern for the rapid intensification forecast. The thermal condition (such as sea surface temperature, water vapor and convective instability) and the dynamic condition (such as environmental vertical wind shear and the strength of upper-level outflow) can generally reach the fitness range of conditions that are favorable for typhoon intensification. However, the values of the above environmental factors have not changed significantly or suddenly during the transition from slow intensification process to rapid intensification process. Some extreme cases even show that some of environmental factors change towards unfavorable conditions for typhoon intensification. These research results provide a reference for the prediction of typhoon rapid intensification and further typhoon studies in the future. As for the unfavorable conditions shown in some RI cases, further studied are necessary to determine whether there are other favorable factors that offset the negative effects of these conditions and what are the corresponding physical processes.

     

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