CMIP6模式大气中南北半球水汽质量反相变化:不同温室气体排放情景差异

Anti-phase relation of water vapor mass between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in CMIP6 models:Differences under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios

  • 摘要: 在大气质量南北涛动季节变化过程中,水汽质量变化与干大气质量南北涛动时间序列存在明显的反位相变化关系。使用2015年1月—2100年12月的CMIP6资料分析4个温室气体排放情景下水汽质量季节循环特征,并与1958—2015年历史模拟试验对比,得到:半球水汽质量存在明显的季节循环特征,北半球水汽质量月平均值在冬季(DJF)达到最小,夏季(JJA)达到最大;南半球情况与之相反。无论是南半球或是北半球,与其他排放情景相比,SSP1-2.6 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway)情景下南、北半球水汽质量年变程最小。4个情景下冬、夏季水汽质量变化都比春、秋季剧烈。随着CO2浓度的上升,SSP3-7.0情景下北半球水汽质量年变程最大,相比于历史模拟试验增加了26.49%,南半球则不同于北半球,SSP1-2.6情景后随着CO2浓度的上升,水汽质量年变程也随之增大,在SSP5-8.5情景下达到最大。南、北半球水汽质量涛动的年变程随着CO2浓度的上升而增大,在SSP5-8.5情景下达到最大,但增大的幅度减小。CO2浓度变化对赤道附近水汽质量变化影响最为明显,且越靠近南极,水汽质量变化越小,但越靠近北极,夏季水汽质量变化比冬季越大。此外,CO2浓度的上升会导致夏季水汽逐渐向北半球中纬度堆积。这些结论有利于更好地认识区域间水汽质量变化对CO2浓度上升的响应,为未来有关降水的气候政策制订提供依据。

     

    Abstract: Changes in water vapor mass can obviously counteract seasonal changes of the interhemispheric oscillation. In the present paper, the outputs of CMIP6 models from January 2015 to December 2100 are used to analyze seasonal cycle characteristics of water vapor mass under four greenhouse gas emission scenarios and compare with the historical run from 1958 to 2015. It is found that the water vapor mass in both hemispheres show obvious seasonal cycles. In the Northern Hemisphere, water vapor mass is characterized by low value in winter and high value in summer, while the opposite is true in the Southern Hemisphere. Regardless of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, the annual range of water vapor mass is the smallest under the SSP1-2.6 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, and large water vapor mass changes occur in winter and summer. With the increase of CO2, the annual range of water vapor mass in the Northern Hemisphere under the SSP3-7.0 scenario is the largest, which increases by 26.49% compared with that of the historical run. The situation in the Southern Hemisphere is different to that in the Northern Hemisphere. With the increase of CO2 after the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the annual range of water vapor mass in the Southern Hemisphere also increases, reaching the maximum under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The annual range of water vapor mass IHO increases with the increase of CO2 concentration, and reaches the maximum under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, the increase amplitude decreases. The change of CO2 concentration has the most obvious influence on the abnormal change of water vapor mass near the Equator. Meanwhile, the closer to the Antarctic, the smaller the abnormal change of water vapor mass. However, the closer to the Arctic, the greater the abnormal change of water vapor mass in summer than in winter. In addition, the increase of CO2 concentration will lead to gradual accumulation of water vapor mass in summer towards the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. These conclusions are conducive to better understanding of the response of water vapor mass change to the increase in CO2 concentration, and provide clues to future climate policy formulation on precipitation.

     

/

返回文章
返回