台风“米克拉”在台湾海峡南部快速增强的原因分析

Analysis for the rapid intensification of typhoon Mekkhala in southern Taiwan Strait

  • 摘要: 利用欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA-Interim再分析资料、中国气象局台风最佳路径资料、NOAA逐日最优海表温度(OISST)、Himawari-8卫星观测资料以及中国地面自动气象站观测资料等,分析了台风“米克拉”近海强度预报的难点,并研究了导致“米克拉”在台湾海峡南部快速增强的环境因子,探讨了“米克拉”在较强环境风垂直切变下快速增强过程中对流非对称分布特征。结果表明:(1)台风“米克拉”在较强200—850 hPa环境风垂直切变下在台湾海峡南部海域发生了快速增强,并以峰值强度在福建登陆,非常少见,造成预警时间短,强度预报难度大;(2)有利的海洋热状况和大气环流环境条件,如中国南海北部海温异常偏高,南亚高压南侧东风急流与“米克拉”相互作用引起的强烈高层出流以及强劲稳定西南季风气流带来的充沛水汽输送,均对台风“米克拉”在台湾海峡南部海域快速增强起重要作用;(3)台风“米克拉”快速增强过程中,传统业务主要关注的200和850 hPa之间的环境风垂直切变较强,但从环境风的垂直结构分析发现切变主要集中在对流层中、高层,而中、低层切变较小,且中、高层环境风垂直切变对台风增强的抑制作用相对中、低层切变要弱;(4)深对流在台风“米克拉”快速增强过程中表现出明显的非对称分布特征,主要集中在环境风垂直切变的顺切变一侧以及切变的左侧,并且伴随深对流由顺切变一侧向逆切变一侧气旋式爆发传播,期间台风“米克拉”高、低层涡旋中心的垂直倾斜度明显降低,有利于“米克拉”快速增强。关于不同层次环境风垂直切变对台风强度变化的影响机制以及较强环境风垂直切变下台风增强过程中对流非对称的爆发特征,今后将结合更多个例进行深入研究。

     

    Abstract: Using the interim reanalysis data of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim), the tropical cyclone best track data from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, the NOAA daily optimum sea surface temperature (OISST), Himawari-8 satellite data, and observations collected at automatic weather stations (AWS) in China, the difficulties of the intensity forecasting of typhoon Mekkhala in the southern Taiwan Strait are analyzed. The environmental factors and the asymmetric distribution of the convective burst during the rapid intensification of Mekkhala in the southern Taiwan Strait are further studied. Results are as follows: (1) The rapid intensification of typhoon Mekkhala in the southern Taiwan Strait under the strong 200—850 hPa vertical wind shear and its landing in Fujian province at peak intensity are very rare, which resulted in a short warning time and great difficulties in intensity prediction. (2) The favorable ocean heat condition and large-scale environmental conditions such as the abnormal warm sea surface temperature in the northern South China Sea, the strong upper-level outflow caused by the easterly jet to the south of the South Asian High, and the abundant and stable southwesterly monsoon water vapor transport all play an important role in the rapid intensification of typhoon Mekkhala in the southern Taiwan Strait. (3) The traditional environmental vertical wind shear (200—850 hPa) is very strong, but the vertical distribution of the environmental wind shows that the environmental vertical wind shear is mainly concentrated in the middle and upper levels, while the shear in the middle and lower levels is relatively weak. However, the vertical wind shear in upper and middle levels has relatively little inhibition on the typhoon intensification. (4) During the rapid intensification of typhoon Mekkhala, the distribution of deep convection presented obvious asymmetric distribution characteristics. The convection was mainly concentrated in the down shear side and the left side of the environmental vertical wind shear (200—850 hPa), accompanied by cyclonic propagation of convective burst from the down shear side to the up shear side, and the tilt of typhoon significantly reduced. Further studies on the impact mechanism of environmental vertical wind shear at different levels on typhoon intensity change and characteristics of asymmetric convective bust during typhoon intensification under strong environmental vertical wind shear will be conducted in the future based on more cases.

     

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