高分辨率地形资料应用对CMA-MESO模式地面气象要素的影响

The impact of high-resolution topographic data on the CMA-MESO model prediction of ground meteorological elements

  • 摘要: 真实地形包含各自不同尺度的地形特征,对各种时空大气运动有深刻影响。不同尺度的地形效应很难在数值模式的离散格点中准确刻画,是发展数值模式的难点问题之一。随着模式向亚千米级高分辨率发展,高分辨模式要求刻画出更高准确度的地形数据。本研究在CMA-MESO中引入ASTER-1s高精度地形数据和改进地形滤波函数,在滤去波长接近模式网格的小尺度地形的同时保留更多地形细节,以提高模式对地形的刻画准确度。通过冬、夏各1个月批量模拟试验结果与2万多个地面观测站点观测数据的对比,发现单独采用ASTER-1s地形而不改变CMA-MESO的地形滤波函数,模式对2 m气温和10 m风速的整体预报准确度提升较小,采用ASTER-1s地形并改进地形滤波函数明显提高了模式对2 m气温和10 m风速的预报准确度,对气温和风速的月平均均方根误差分别减少了6.4%和4.9%。夏季1个月批量试验显示,改进的新地形方案对降水预报提升较弱,未造成非真实的细碎降水分布或异常值。此外,动能谱分析新引入的地形和滤波函数未造成高频能量积累。研究结果表明新地形方案能够明显改进低层气温和风速的预报准确度,并且在数值上稳定可靠。

     

    Abstract: Orography influences atmospheric circulation on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The representation of its impact in numerical weather prediction models remains a challenging issue since the orographic spectrum can only be partially resolved in models. As numerical atmospheric models develop towards running in sub-kilometer resolutions, the need for accurate depiction of orography details becomes increasingly important. In this study, a new method to process orography is implemented in the CMA-MESO model by incorporating a new high-resolution orographic database ASTER-1s and an improved orography filter. The new method can remove harmful noises and retain more detailed small-scall orography features in the model, which greatly improves the representation of orographic effects. This new orography processing method is evaluated in the CMA-MESO based on simulations in June and December 2020. Comparison with observations collected at more than 20000 sites indicates that using ASTER-1s data without changing the filter does not significantly improve the prediction of 2 m temperature and 10 m wind speed. Using ASTER-1s data together with a new filter can greatly improve the prediction, resulting in a reduction of mean root mean square errors by 6.4% and 4.9% for the monthly mean 2 m temperature and 10 m wind speed, respectively. The prediction of monthly mean precipitation is also improved but not as significantly as that for the temperature and wind speed. The energy spectrum analysis shows that the new orography processing method does not show unrealistic energy accumulation at high frequencies, indicating the reliability of this method. Results of the study indicate that the new orography processing method can significantly improve the accuracy of near-surface temperature and wind speed forecast and is numerically stable and reliable.

     

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