基于贝叶斯方法的冰雹大小识别研究

Hail size discrimination based on the Bayesian method

  • 摘要: 冰雹大小直接影响到产生灾害的程度,针对冰雹大小识别的需求,基于济南和青岛两部S波段双偏振雷达探测的冰雹统计信息建立数据集,获取小冰雹、大冰雹、特大冰雹的雷达水平反射率因子(ZH)、差分反射率(ZDR)和相关系数(CC)的概率分布,构建基于贝叶斯方法的冰雹大小识别模型(Hail size discrimination model,HSDM),然后应用两个超级单体雹暴过程进行验证。研究表明:(1)模型识别结果与实况吻合,识别的冰雹大小也符合不同尺寸冰雹散射特性、偏振参量特征及超级单体雹暴动力与微物理特性的分析。(2)冰雹大小的水平分布特征与垂直分布特征符合超级单体雹暴降水粒子筛选机制及冰雹生长机制。大冰雹、特大冰雹主要分布在靠近前侧V型槽口的强回波区;超级单体悬挂回波下侧生成小冰雹,弱回波区上面高梯度的强反射率区主要生成大冰雹、特大冰雹并沿强回波墙落地,小冰雹在远离上升气流一侧降落。(3)靠近上升气流的小冰雹主要分布在ZDR柱、KDP柱及之间区域,大冰雹及特大冰雹主要位于远离ZDR柱的KDP柱另一侧。可结合低于2 km高度的识别结果综合判断强冰雹落地浓度。

     

    Abstract: The size of hails directly affects the severity degree of weather disasters. To meet the need of hail size identification, based on statistical data of hails detected by two S-band dual-polarization radars in Jinan and Qingdao, a hail dataset is trained first, and the probability distributions of radar horizontal reflectance factor (ZH), differential reflectance (ZDR) and correlation coefficient (CC) for small, large and giant hails are then obtained. Finally, the hail size discrimination model (HSDM) based on Bayesian method is developed and verified by two supercell storm processes. The study yields the following results. (1) The results obtained from HSDM are consistent with the real situation and agree with the analysis of the scattering and polarization parameters characteristics of different size hails and dynamic and microphysical characteristics for supercell hail storm. (2) Horizontal and vertical distribution characteristics of hail size agree with the precipitation particles filtering mechanisms and the hail growth mechanism of supercell storm. Large hails and giant hails are mainly located in strong echo area near the front side of the V-shaped groove. On the lower side of the suspension echo of supercell, small hails are found. Large hails and giant hails are mainly generated in the high reflectance area with large gradient above the weak echo area and then fall along the strong echo wall, but smaller hails fall on the side far away from the updraft. (3) Small hails near the updraft are mainly distributed in the ZDR column, KDP column and between them, large hails and giant hails are mainly located on the other side of the KDP column away from the ZDR column. The landing concentration of heavy hails can be determined comprehensively by combining the identification results at the height below 2 km.

     

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