中国地区夏季云量的周期特征和变化趋势

Periodic characteristics and variation trend of summer cloud amount over China

  • 摘要: 利用1961—2010年中国2400多站的降水和云量数据集,根据降水聚类分析结果和中国地理气候特征把中国大陆地区分为9个区域,采用集合经验模态分解法(EEMD)和小波分析提取各个区域夏季日平均云量变化序列的不同周期信号,探讨云量变化的周期特征和长期趋势。EEMD和小波分析的综合结果表明:中国夏季总云量和低云量的气候变化中,主要存在2—4 a、5—7 a、8—12 a和25—32 a等周期分量。中国大部分地区云量的2—4 a周期全时域显著,5—7 a周期局部时域显著,表明云量变化序列中2—4 a和5—7 a的周期振荡是真实存在的。其中,准3 a周期普遍存在且具有较高的显著性和较强的稳定性,是云量序列的主导性周期。2—4 a和5—7 a周期信号所占方差贡献比例大于70%。总云量和低云量序列的多周期信号及其分布形势具有很好的相似变化,但在周期长度、方差贡献率和趋势变化上还存在一定的差异,趋势变化的差异尤其显著。总云量和低云量趋势项50%的结果与线性趋势有明显差异。东北地区夏季总云量50 a总体呈减少趋势,2000年以后转为增多趋势;低云量在1980年以前处在稳定偏少状态,之后增多,总体呈增多趋势。东部干旱区低云量由偏多状态一直减少,存在显著的减少趋势。西部干旱区夏季总云量从偏少状态呈不断增多趋势;低云量趋势项由偏少不断增多,贡献率高达61.2%。华北地区夏季总云量1980年以前基本保持稳定,之后转为明显的增多趋势;低云量由偏多状态一直减少。华中南部地区夏季低云量从偏少随时间推移呈增多趋势,于1995年前后转为偏多,进入21世纪之后低云量变化不大。华南地区夏季总云量1980年以前保持稳定,之后呈减少趋势;低云量从偏少随时间推移呈增多趋势。西南地区夏季低云量的趋势项呈先减小后增大走势,1980年为转折点。青藏高原夏季总云量偏多呈先减少后增多的趋势,1995年为转折点;低云量的趋势项呈先减小后增大走势,1980年为转折点。

     

    Abstract: In order to explore the periodic characteristics and long-term trends of cloud variability, Mainland China region is divided into nine subregions based on results of precipitation cluster analysis and geoclimatic characteristics of China. Precipitation and cloud amount data collected at 2400 stations in China from 1961 to 2010 are used. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and wavelet analysis methods are used to extract multi-scale signals of the variation series of daily mean cloud amount in summer in each region. The combined results of EEMD and wavelet analysis demonstrate that the periodic components of 2—4 a, 5—7 a, 8—12 a and 25—32 a are primarily present in the summertime climatic changes of total and low cloud amounts in China. The 2—4 a is a global time domain significance cycle and the 5—7 a is a local time domain significance cycle for cloud amounts in most areas of China. It indicates that the 2—4 a and 5—7 a are real periodic oscillations in the cloud amount variation series. The dominating cycle of the cloud amount series is the quasi-3 a, which is most prevalent, significant, and stable. Over 70% of the variance contribution is accounted for by the inter-annual scale signals, i.e., 2—4 a and 5—7 a. Although there are certain similarities on the multiscale period signals and distribution circumstances for total and low cloud amount series, there are also some differences in cycle length, variance contribution, and trend shift, while the last one of which is particularly important. From the trend items of total and low cloud amount series, it can be found that half of the trend items are significantly different from the linear trend, which illustrates the intricacy of trend variations and reasons. The summer total cloud amount in Northeast China showed a general decreasing trend during the 50-year period, but it turned to an increasing trend after 2000. The low cloud amount remained a stable low state until 1980, and then it showed an increasing trend and an overall increasing trend. The low cloud amount in the eastern arid zone was decreasing from the partial state, and there was a significant decreasing trend. The total summer cloud amount in the western arid zone had an increasing trend from the low state. The trend term of low cloud amount was also increasing from the low state, and its contribution was as high as 61.2%. The total summer cloud amount in North China basically remained unchanged before 1980 and turned to an obvious increasing trend after 1980. The low cloud amount was decreasing from a partial state. In southern Central China, the low cloud amount in summer increased with time from the low state to the high state around 1995, and the low cloud amount changed little after the 21st century. There was little variation in the total cloud amount in summer in Southern China until 1980, and there was a declining trend later. Low cloud amount had gradually increased over time. The trend of low cloud amount in summer in Southwest China decreased first and then increased, with 1980 as the turning point. The total cloud amount in summer in the Qingzang plateau region showed a trend of decreasing and then increased from a high state, with 1995 as the turning point. The trend term of low cloud amount also showed a decreasing trend followed by an increasing trend, with 1980 as the turning point.

     

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