CMA-GEPS极端温度预报指数及2022年夏季极端高温预报检验评估

Development of the CMA-GEPS extreme forecast index and its application to verification of summer 2022 extreme high temperature forecasts

  • 摘要: 极端预报指数(EFI)是利用集合预报获取极端天气信息的有效工具之一。为提升CMA全球集合预报系统(CMA-GEPS)对极端天气的预报能力,针对CMA-GEPS历史预报数据少且再预报数据缺乏、难以合理统计模式气候分布的难题,研究利用小样本确定性预报数据形成EFI所需模式气候分布的方法。采用2020年6月15日—2022年7月22日CMA全球高分辨率(0.25°×0.25°)确定性业务预报数据,通过一种时间、空间样本扩展方法建立了与较低分辨率(0.5°×0.5°)的CMA-GEPS预报模式版本匹配的各预报时效(1—10 d)逐月模式气候分布。使用CMA-GEPS业务预报和ERA5再分析数据评估了CMA-GEPS 2 m气温EFI对2022年夏季(6—8月)中外4个代表性区域极端高温的预报能力。基于相对作用特征曲线的检验结果表明,CMA-GEPS EFI在1—10 d的短、中期预报时效上均具备区分极端高温的能力。以最大TS评分为准则,确定了用于发布极端高温预警信号的EFI临界阈值。EFI的预报能力随预报时效延长呈下降趋势,且在不同区域的表现存在差异:对中国长江中下游地区极端高温的预报能力在各时效上均优于华北地区;欧洲西部地区1—7 d时效上的EFI预报能力高于欧洲中部地区,而欧洲中部地区8—10 d时效上的EFI预报能力更好。上述结果与2 m气温的集合预报质量随预报时效与空间位置而变化有关。经济价值模型的评估结果表明,基于EFI预报信息的风险决策存在一定的经济价值和参考价值。个例分析结果进一步展现了CMA-GEPS EFI能够在中期预报时效上发出极端高温早期预警的能力。

     

    Abstract: Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) provides an effective tool to extract extreme weather information from ensemble forecasts. To improve the ability of the CMA global ensemble prediction system (CMA-GEPS) for extreme weather forecast and address the difficulty of reasonably calculating the model climate distribution due to small samples of historical forecasts by CMA-GEPS and the lack of re-forecast data, this study develops a method to build the model climate distribution required by EFI using insufficient samples of deterministic forecasts. Based on the CMA global high-resolution (0.25°×0.25°) deterministic operational forecast data from 15 June 2020 to 22 July 2022, the model climate distributions are constructed for each month at different forecast lead times (1—10 d) that match the lower-resolution (0.5°×0.5°) CMA-GEPS forecast model version through extending the forecast samples in both time and space. By employing the operational forecast data of CMA-GEPS and the ERA5 reanalysis data, the forecast ability of CMA-GEPS for extreme high temperature in four representative regions both domestic and abroad for the summer of 2022 (June to August) is evaluated. Results from the relative operating characteristic curve show that the CMA-GEPS EFI has the ability to detect extreme high temperature within the short- and medium-range forecast lead times of 1—10 d. Taking the maximum TS score as the criterion, the critical threshold of EFI for issuing warning signals of extreme high temperature is determined. The forecast ability of EFI decreases with increasing forecast lead time, and different performances exhibit in different regions: the forecast ability for extreme high temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river in China is higher than that in North China for all lead times; the forecast ability of EFI in western Europe is better than that in central Europe for the 1—7 d lead times, yet the EFI forecast ability in central Europe for the 8—10 d lead times is better. Above results are related to the variation of ensemble forecast quality of 2 m temperature with forecast lead time and spatial location. Evaluation results from the economic value model reveal that risk decisions based on the EFI forecast information demonstrate certain economic values and reference values. Analysis results from a case study further indicate that the CMA-GEPS EFI can provide early warnings of extreme high temperature in the medium forecast range.

     

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