暖干背景下的河南春季极端雨雪天气成因分析

Causes of a spring extreme rain-snow event in Henan province of Central China under warm and dry weather conditions

  • 摘要: 过渡季节的春季极端雨雪天气一直以来都是预报中的难点。利用常规地面观测、探空、多普勒天气雷达等观测资料和ERA5再分析数据,对2023年3月16日发生在河南省的一次极端雨雪天气成因进行了分析,重点关注了其极端降水及复杂雨雪相态转换成因。主要结论如下:此次过程是一次发生在暖干背景下,由高空槽东移配合低涡切变线北抬造成的极端雨雪天气,具有转折性强、降雪强度大、强降雪时段长等特点,降雪时地面气温始终维持在0℃附近,雨雪相态转换复杂;异常偏强的极端动力强迫是此次过程小时降水强度大的重要因素,这与对流层低层异常偏强的低空急流所伴随的热、动力强迫有关。另外,条件对称不稳定也在一定程度上加剧了其垂直上升运动的发展,低涡移动缓慢、回波系统走向与移向夹角较小是其降水持续较长时间的关键;过程前期气温异常偏高,15日冷空气降温为雨雪相态转换提供了可能,但河南省中、东部边界层气温仍未达到雨转雪标准,过程开始阶段对流层低层存在明显干层,与此相伴随的由降水粒子蒸发等相变过程造成的降温,是其雨转雪的重要降温机制,干层的存在及降水的持续发展,成为边界层气温能否降到0℃附近的关键,大气趋于饱和之后,固态降水粒子的融化降温在降雪相态维持中也起到了十分重要的作用。

     

    Abstract: Extreme rain and snow events during the transitional season are always difficult to forecast. In this paper, a spring extreme rain-snow event that occurred on 16 March 2023 in Henan provionce is studied by using conventional surface observations, radiosonde observations, radar and ERA5 reanalysis data, with a focus on the causes of the extreme precipitation and complex phase transition of rain and snow. Major conclusions are as follows: This process is an extreme rain and snow event caused by an eastward moving upper trough combined with a northward moving low vortex shear under a warm-dry background. It was characterized by a sharp transition, high snowfall intensity, a prolonged period of heavy snowfall, and complex precipitation phase transitions, as the surface temperature remained near 0℃ throughout the snowfall. During the process, the abnormally strong extreme dynamic forcing, which was resulted from the thermodynamic forcing accompanied by abnormally strong low-level jet in the lower troposphere and the conditional symmetric instability, was an important factor that affected the high hourly precipitation rate; meanwhile, the slow movement of the low vortex and the small angle between the trend and direction of the echo system were key factors for the long-term precipitation. Temperature at the early stage of the process was abnormally high, and the cooling process occurred on 15 March, making the transition from rain to snow possible. At the beginning of the process, there was an obvious dry layer in the lower troposphere. During the process, the cooling effect caused by phase transition processes such as precipitation evaporation was an important cooling mechanism for the occurrence of the rain-to-snow weather, and the existence of the dry layer and the continuous development of precipitation were the key factors that determined whether the temperature could drop to around 0℃. After the atmosphere became saturated, the cooling mechanism caused by ice crystal melting also played a very important role in the maintenance of the snowfall phase.

     

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