变分框架下双偏振雷达直接同化算子的构建及其初步应用

Construction and preliminary application of the direct assimilation operator for dual polarimetric radars under variational assimilation framework

  • 摘要: 双偏振雷达探测资料(简称双偏振雷达资料)能够更好地识别水凝物粒子特征。为发挥双偏振雷达资料的作用,更有效地同化双偏振雷达资料,提高对流天气的预报效果,发展建立了一套基于水凝物控制变量的双偏振雷达资料变分直接同化方案,并开展了观测算子和伴随算子的切线性及伴随检验、单点观测试验及真实个例的循环同化预报试验。切线性及伴随检验结果表明,该双偏振雷达资料直接同化方案的模拟结果符合精度要求,算子构建合理。单点观测试验表明,双偏振观测信息通过水凝物背景场误差协方差传递到水凝物等相关变量,实现了相关变量的协调分析。一个真实个例的循环同化及预报试验表明,双偏振雷达资料同化改进了分析场及预报场的热力和动力及微物理结构特征,进而提高了降雨预报效果。基于变分框架下的双偏振雷达资料直接同化方案能够合理同化双偏振雷达观测信息,并改进6 h降水预报效果,相对采用集合卡尔曼滤波方案同化该资料效率更高,更便于业务推广应用。

     

    Abstract: Abundant mesoscale hydrometeor information is included in dual polarimetric radar data, which plays an essential role in the monitoring of convective storms. To assimilate dual polarimetric radar data more effectively, a direct dual polarimetric radar data assimilation scheme is developed. The tangent linear and adjoint examination for observation operators and its adjoint, single observation tests, and cycling data assimilation and forecasting experiments in a real-data case are conducted. The results in tangent linear and adjoint examination indicate that this dual polarimetric radar data direct assimilation scheme satisfies the requirement of precision, and the operator is reasonably constructed. It can be seen from the results of single observation tests that the observation information from dual polarimetric radars can be transferred to relative variables such as hydrometeors via hydrometeor background error covariance, and the analysis becomes more cooperated. The results from cycling assimilation and forecasting experiments in a real-data case show that dynamic, thermodynamic and microphysical structures can be optimized by dual polarimetric radar data assimilation, and the capability of rainfall prediction is improved. It can be concluded that the direct dual polarimetric radar data assimilation scheme under variational framework can make the dual polarimetric radar observation information to be assimilated more reasonably, and the quality of 6-hour prediction can be improved. It has more computing efficiency compared with ensemble Kalman filter, and is more convenient for operational application.

     

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