孟加拉湾风暴对华南前汛期持续性极端降水过程的水汽输送机制研究

Study on the water vapor transport mechanism of Bay of Bengal storms on persistent extreme precipitation events in South China during pre-flood season

  • 摘要: 基于1979—2020年孟加拉湾风暴(以下简称孟湾风暴)最佳路径资料、ERA5再分析资料和前汛期华南地区持续性极端降水过程(PEPEs)个例,采用HYSPLIT模式和Fuzzy c-means聚类分析等方法,分析影响PEPEs的孟湾风暴活动特征及其水汽输送特征,研究影响其水汽输送机制的大尺度环流因子。结果表明:(1)与全年相比,前汛期孟湾风暴生命史偏长且强风暴比例更高,风暴持续时间和华南地区降水呈明显正相关。约1/3前汛期孟湾风暴对华南地区PEPEs产生重要影响,此类风暴强度更强且持续时间更长。(2)受孟湾风暴影响的PEPEs其水汽主要来自孟加拉湾的南支和北支水汽输送通道以及西太洋副热带高压西侧的偏南气流,尤其是南支水汽输送通道使华南地区南边界的水汽辐合显著加强。没有造成PEPEs的孟湾风暴以北支水汽输送通道为主。(3)从大尺度环流上看,孟湾风暴活动引起的气旋性异常环流和中高低层天气系统的配合有利于发生PEPEs,其水汽输送机制的关键环流因子是中南半岛以南的南亚次大陆区域偏强的越赤道偏西气流,该支气流起到了衔接孟加拉湾和南海水汽的作用,建立起南支水汽输送通道。以上研究结果加深了孟湾风暴对华南前汛期PEPEs影响的认识,关注前汛期孟湾风暴的活动和关键环流因子的发展演变是PEPEs监测、预测新的着眼点。

     

    Abstract: Based on best tracks of the Bay of Bengal storms and the ERA5 reanalysis and persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPEs) in South China during pre-flood seasons from 1979 to 2020, characteristics of the Bay of Bengal storms that have great influence on PEPEs are analyzed. Water vapor transport characteristics of PEPEs influenced by the Bay of Bengal storms and large-scale circulation factors affecting water vapor transport are further investigated using HYSPLIT model and Fuzzy c-means cluster analysis and other methods. Results are as follows. (1) The Bay of Bengal storms during pre-flood season tend to have longer duration and stronger intensity compared to storms in other time periods of the year. There is a significant positive correlation between the duration of storms and concurrent accumulative rainfall in South China. About one third of storms during the pre-flood season have great impacts on PEPEs in South China, and they usually have a larger intensity and a longer life span. (2) The main water vapor transport channels for PEPEs influenced by the Bay of Bengal storms are the south water vapor transport channel and the north water vapor transport channel, while the southerly flows on the west flank of the western Pacific subtropical high also play an important role. Specifically, water vapor convergence along the southern boundary of South China can substantively increase by the south water vapor transport channel. However, the north water transport channel is the main channel for the Bay of Bengal storms, which do not cause PEPEs. (3) From the perspective of large-scale circulation, the anomalous cyclonic circulation and favorable synoptic systems in the upper, middle and lower troposphere result in the occurrence of PEPEs in South China. The key circulation factor is the anomalously strong westerly flow across the equator in South Asian subcontinent on the south of the Indochina Peninsula, which connects water vapor from the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea, ultimately forming the south water vapor transport channel. The above research deepens our understanding of the influence of the Bengal storms on the pre-flood PEPEs in South China. Activities of the Bengal storms and the development and evolution of key circulation factors in the pre-flood season are also a new focus for PEPEs monitoring and forecasting.

     

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