华南“龙舟水”强度异常与大气环流和海温异常的关系分析

Analysis the causes of abnormal intensity of the Dragon_boat precipitation in South China

  • 摘要: 每年端午节前后龙舟竞渡之时,是华南前汛期降水最多、最集中的时期,强降水常引发严重洪涝灾害。对近62年华南“龙舟水”强度异常的气候成因进行分析是防灾、减灾的迫切需求。利用1961—2022年华南192个国家级气象观测站逐日降水资料,构建一个表征华南“龙舟水”强度的年景指数,采用线性趋势分析、小波分析等方法分析其变化特征。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和海表温度资料,采用相关和合成分析方法,分析了近62 年华南“龙舟水”强度异常与同期大气环流和前期海温异常的关系。结果表明,近62年来,华南“龙舟水”强度年景指数具有明显的年际和年代际变化,且呈明显线性上升趋势。1993年以前主要存在4—5 a的年际变化周期,1993年后,除存在准2 a和准6 a的年际周期外,还存在准16 a的年代际周期。相关分析表明,在“龙舟水”期间(5月21日—6月20日),对流层高层北太平洋中纬度地区位势高度降低,中层东亚大槽南段偏强,华南北部位势高度降低,南支槽偏强,低层菲律宾以东异常反气旋的存在,地面鄂霍次克海阻塞高压加强、东北太平洋高压减弱有利于华南“龙舟水”偏强。“龙舟水”期间,1993年之前和之后不同年代际背景下,华南“龙舟水”异常强、弱年的大气环流存在明显差异。1993年后,高层华南上空辐散更强,低层从西太平洋、中国南海和孟加拉湾到华南的水汽输送更为突出,而北方南下的冷空气更强,致使华南的水汽辐合和上升运动更强,导致1993年后“龙舟水”强度更强。相关分析表明,上一年夏季、秋季到冬季热带大西洋海温持续偏低、上一年夏季到秋季海洋性大陆海温偏低、东北太平海温偏高,当年春季热带北太平洋日界线附近海温偏低,有利于华南“龙舟水”强度偏强。华南“龙舟水”异常强、弱年与前期赤道中东太平洋海温的关系具有不对称性,异常强年在1993年及以前主要是厄尔尼诺的持续或衰减年,1993年以后主要是拉尼娜的持续或衰减年。

     

    Abstract: The Dragon boat race period around the Dragon Boat Festival every year is the period with the highest and most concentrated precipitation during the pre-flood season in South China, and heavy rainfall often leads to serious flood disasters. Analyzing climatic causes of abnormal intensity of the Dragon_boat precipitation in South China in the past 62 years is imperative for disaster prevention and mitigation. Using daily precipitation data collected at 192 national meteorological observation stations in South China from 1961 to 2022, a yearly index is constructed to characterize the intensity of the Dragon_boat precipitation in South China. Linear trend analysis, wavelet analysis, and other methods are used to analyze its changing characteristics. Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and SST data, correlation and composite analysis methods are used to analyze the relationship between the intensity anomaly of the Dragon_boat precipitation in South China over the past 62 years and atmospheric circulation anomalies during the same period and preceding SST anomalies. The results show that the annual intensity index of Dragon_boat precipitation in South China has obvious interannual and interdecadal changes, while an obvious linear upward trend can be found in the past 62 years. The annual intensity index of Dragon_boat precipitation has shifted from weak before 1993 to strong afterwards. There was mainly an interannual variation cycle of 4—5 a before 1993, and there is also an interdecadal cycle of about 16 a in addition to the interannual cycles of about 2 and 6 a after 1993. Related analysis shows that during the Dragon_boat precipitation period (21 May—20 June), geopotential height in the mid-latitude region of the North Pacific decreases in the upper troposphere, the southern section of the East Asian trough in the middle troposphere is stronger, and geopotential height in northern part of South China decreases, and the southern branch trough is stronger. The presence of abnormal anticyclones to the east of the Philippines in the lower troposphere, the strengthening of the block high in the surface over the Okhotsk sea, and the weakening of the high pressure in the Northeast Pacific all are conducive to abnormally strong Dragon_boat precipitation in South China. In different interdecadal backgrounds before and after 1993, there are significant differences in the atmospheric circulation between abnormally strong and abnormally weak years during the Dragon_boat precipitation period in South China. After 1993, upper-level divergence over South China becomes stronger, and water vapor transport from the Western Pacific, the South China Sea and the bay of Bengal to southern China becomes more prominent. Meanwhile, cold air from the north to the south is stronger than before, leading to abnormally strong water vapor convergence and upward movement in southern China and large Dragon_boat precipitation intensity after 1993. Related analysis shows that the tropical Atlantic SST remains low in summer, autumn and winter of the previous year, and the maritime continent SST is also low from summer to autumn of the previous year. SST is high in the Northeast Pacific but low near the tropical North Pacific Date Line in the spring of the current year, which is conducive to strong intensity of the Dragon_boat precipitation in South China. The relationship between the strong and weak years of the Dragon_boat precipitation in South China and SST in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific is asymmetric. The strong years are mainly years of El Niño persistence or attenuation before 1993, while they were mainly years of La Niña persistence or attenuation after 1993.

     

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