应用深度网络的显著目标检测算法的强降水落区临近预报技术

A nowcasting technique for heavy rainfall areas using deep network for salient object detection

  • 摘要: 降水持续时间相同时,降水强度越大,诱发城市积涝、山洪、泥石流、滑坡等次生灾害的可能性越大。在全球气候变暖的背景下,亚小时降雨极端事件比小时以上时间尺度的极端事件增加得更快,有必要研究亚小时尺度上的强降水监测预警技术。选取2013—2021年重庆地区30次暴雨天气过程,以显著目标检测深度网络U2-Net为基础,将30 min短时强降水落区作为显著目标,天气雷达反射率因子拼图作为输入,通过数据驱动方式自动学习某一时次的天气雷达反射率因子空间分布与其后30 min的强降水落区的非线性关系,进行强降水落区预报。强降水落区标签按照10、20和30 mm阈值分为3种,由雷达融合地面分钟级雨量的定量降水估计得到。模型输入为3、4.5和7 km高度的雷达反射率因子拼图。经过训练和验证,得到针对3种强降水阈值的3个强降水落区预报模型。对测试集的检验结果表明,当邻域半径为5 km时,10、20和30 mm阈值模型输出的命中率分别为0.66、0.73和0.72,虚警率分别为0.06、0.32和0.57,临界成功指数分别为0.64、0.54和0.37;强降水落区预报图中的概率越大,对强降水落区的预报越可靠。综上所述,强降水落区预报模型通过提取单个时次的三维反射率因子多尺度特征,预报未来30 min强降水落区,可以有效补充雨量计布设稀疏地区的强降水监测和预报信息,也为需要提取多源探测资料多尺度特征的临近预报技术研究提供参考。

     

    Abstract: For precipitation with the same duration, the higher the precipitation intensity, the greater the occurrence likelihood of urban waterlogging, flash flooding, mudslides, landslides, and other secondary disasters. In the context of global warming, sub-hourly extreme precipitation events are increasing much faster than those with longer durations, highlighting the need for advanced monitoring and nowcasting technologies for sub-hourly heavy rainfall. This study selects 30 heavy precipitation events in Chongqing from 2013 to 2021 to train the deep network U2-Net for significant object detection, using weather radar reflectivity mosaics as inputs. The network identifies heavy rainfall areas as salient objects and autonomously learns the nonlinear relationship between the spatial distribution of reflectivity at a given time and the subsequent 30-minute heavy rainfall areas and provides forecasts of heavy rainfall region. The sample labels are divided into three categories based on thresholds of 10 mm, 20 mm, and 30 mm obtained from radar-rain gauge quantitative precipitation estimates. The model inputs are radar reflectivity mosaics at altitudes of 3 km, 4.5 km, and 7 km. After training and validation, three forecasting models corresponding to the three heavy rainfall thresholds are developed. Testing on an independent dataset reveals that, with a neighborhood radius of 5 km, the models achieve hit rates of 0.66, 0.73, and 0.72, false alarm rates of 0.06, 0.32, and 0.57, and critical success indices of 0.64, 0.54, and 0.37 for the 10 mm, 20 mm, and 30 mm thresholds, respectively. Higher probabilities in the forecast maps indicate more reliable forecasts of heavy rainfall areas. In conclusion, the heavy rainfall forecasting models can effectively predict 30-minute heavy rainfall areas by extracting multi-scale features of three-dimensional radar reflectivity. These models help supplement rainfall monitoring and forecasting in areas with sparse rain gauge networks, providing a valuable reference for nowcasting technologies that require multi-source data feature extraction.

     

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