最大熵增模型在业务数值预报系统中的应用研究

A study on the application of maximum entropy production model in operational numerical weather forecast system

  • 摘要: 准确计算地表热通量对理解陆-气相互作用和提升天气预报、预测能力具有十分重要的科学意义和实用价值。目前数值天气预报模式中普遍采用的基于莫宁-奥布霍夫相似理论(Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory,MOST)计算地表热通量的方法具有局限性,而国际上近年来提出的用最大熵增(Maximum Entropy Production,MEP)模型计算地表热通量的方法具有优势并取得较好效果,越来越广泛地应用于陆-气交换过程研究。为了评估MEP模型在业务数值预报系统中的适用性,以及其与模式系统中现有常用地表热通量计算方法的差异,研究将MEP模型引入北京市气象局现有业务数值预报系统(CMA-BJ模式),用于计算地表感热、潜热和土壤热通量,替换模式中原有基于MOST的方法。针对2022年6—8月开展模拟试验,评估业务数值预报系统采用MEP模型后对陆面和大气要素及降水的预报效果。结果表明:在CMA-BJ模式中采用MEP模型,能够显著改善模式对地表能量平衡及陆面和边界层热、动力过程的模拟,提高模式对边界层内温度、湿度和风的模拟能力,最终提高降水尤其是强降水的预报准确度,华北地区和长江流域暴雨的TS(Threat Score)评分分别提高了20%和10%,预报降水的日变化特征也与实况更接近、相关系数更大。这些结果表明,将MEP模型应用于数值天气预报模式及相关业务系统是可行的。

     

    Abstract: Accurate calculation of land surface heat fluxes is scientifically significant and practically valuable for understanding land-atmosphere interaction and improving capabilities of weather forecast. The methods commonly used for calculating land surface heat fluxes in current numerical weather forecast models are based on the Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST). These methods have some limitations and it is hard to further improve them. Meanwhile, a method based on maximum entropy production (MEP) model is proposed to calculate land surface heat fluxes in recent years. This method demonstrates great advantages and yields good results and has been increasingly applied in the study of land-atmosphere exchange. This study introduces the MEP model into the operational weather forecast numerical model (CMA-BJ model) in Beijing Meteorological Service to replace the existing MOST-based method in the model for the calculation of land surface sensible heat flux, latent heat flux and ground heat flux. Simulation experiments over the period from June to August 2022 are conducted to evaluate the performance of the operational numerical model system with the MEP model on predicting land surface and atmospheric meteorological elements and precipitation. Results show that the use of MEP model in CMA-BJ model can significantly improve the simulation of surface energy balance and thermodynamic processes of land surface and boundary layer. It also enhances the ability of the model for the simulation of air temperature, humidity and wind in the boundary layer, and ultimately increases the accuracy of precipitation prediction, especially for heavy rainfall prediction. The TS (threat scores) of rainstorm forecasts in North China and Yangtze river basin have increased by 20% and 10%, respectively. The predicted diurnal precipitation variation is also more consistent with observations with higher correlation coefficient. These results show that it is feasible to use MEP model in numerical weather forecast models and operational systems.

     

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