海-气耦合过程对东亚冬季风季节-次季节变异的影响及预测

The impact of ocean−atmosphere interaction on seasonal and subseasonal variations and prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon

  • 摘要: 本文回顾了中国学者关于海-气耦合过程影响东亚冬季风季节变异的研究进展,综述了东亚冬季风次季节变异的可能物理机制,概述了考虑海-气耦合过程对东亚冬季风季节预测的贡献。东亚冬季风系统同时受到厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño−Southern Oscillation,ENSO)、印度洋、大西洋海温异常及北极海冰海温异常等的影响。近年来,东亚冬季风表现出明显的次季节变异特征,在一个冬季内出现位相异常反转,这与不同海区的海-气耦合过程密切相关。考虑关键海-气耦合过程对季节平均及次季节尺度上东亚冬季风的季节预测有重要贡献。本文还展望了该领域尚未解决的科学问题及东亚冬季风季节预测的发展趋势。

     

    Abstract: This paper reviews the research progress made by Chinese scientists regarding the impact of ocean−atmosphere interaction on seasonal variation of the East Asian winter monsoon, the physical processes involved in subseasonal variation of the East Asian winter monsoon, and the contribution of ocean−atmosphere interaction to seasonal prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon. The East Asian winter monsoon system is regulated by the El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and Arctic Ocean, as well as Arctic sea ice anomalies. In recent years, the East Asian winter monsoon has shown significant subseasonal variations, manifested as phase reversals within a single winter. These variations are closely related to ocean−atmosphere interactions in different oceanic regions. Considering key ocean−atmosphere interactions significantly improves seasonal prediction skills of the East Asian winter monsoon on both seasonal and subseasonal time scales. This paper also addresses some unresolved scientific issues and development trends in seasonal prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon.

     

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