Abstract:
This paper reviews the research progress made by Chinese scientists regarding the impact of ocean−atmosphere interaction on seasonal variation of the East Asian winter monsoon, the physical processes involved in subseasonal variation of the East Asian winter monsoon, and the contribution of ocean−atmosphere interaction to seasonal prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon. The East Asian winter monsoon system is regulated by the El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and Arctic Ocean, as well as Arctic sea ice anomalies. In recent years, the East Asian winter monsoon has shown significant subseasonal variations, manifested as phase reversals within a single winter. These variations are closely related to ocean−atmosphere interactions in different oceanic regions. Considering key ocean−atmosphere interactions significantly improves seasonal prediction skills of the East Asian winter monsoon on both seasonal and subseasonal time scales. This paper also addresses some unresolved scientific issues and development trends in seasonal prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon.