综合多源资料的强对流天气临近预报技术进展和展望

Advances in and Outlook for Severe Convective Weather Nowcasting Technology Based on Multi-Source Data

  • 摘要: 本文总结了强对流天气监测和临近预报技术以及临近预报系统进展,重点回顾了综合多源资料应用深度学习方法的监测和临近预报技术进展,指出了面临的挑战和未来展望。近年来,基于双偏振天气雷达、静止卫星等多源观测资料,利用结构特征识别统计、模糊逻辑、深度学习等技术的强对流天气类型和强度、对流初生、对流风暴单体的识别追踪等监测能力进一步提升。应用深度学习和深度生成模型的技术方法显著提升了强对流天气临近预报准确率和预报时效。中国气象局SWAN 3.0系统性能显著提升,得到广泛业务应用。未来,需要充分利用百米级精细观测和数值预报资料,加深强对流天气γ中尺度和小尺度等机理认识,综合应用机理规律和深度学习等多种技术方法,发展临近预报大模型,持续提升分类型、分强度的强对流天气精密监测和精准临近预警技术水平,充分发挥预报员的复杂智慧综合研判作用和提升对极端强度天气的预报能力等。

     

    Abstract: Significant progress has been made in the monitoring and nowcasting technology of severe convective weather, but the accuracy and lead time still cannot fully meet the needs of disaster prevention and reduction. This article provides an overview of the progress in monitoring and nowcasting techniques for severe convective weather, as well as the development of operational nowcasting systems. It focuses on summarizing the progress of monitoring and nowcasting techniques using deep learning models based on multi-source data, and points out the challenges faced and future outlook. Based on multi-source observations such as those from dual polarization weather radars and geostationary satellites, the monitoring capabilities of severe convective weather types and intensities, convective inception, and identification and tracking of convective storm cells are further improved using structural feature recognition statistics, fuzzy logic, deep learning, and other technologies. The application of deep generative models has significantly improved the accuracy and lead time of severe convective weather nowcasting. The SWAN (Severe weather Analysis and Nowcasting) 3.0 system of China Meteorological Administration has significantly improved performance and has been widely used in operation in China. In the future, it is necessary to make full use of fine observation and numerical forecast data at the hundred meter resolution, and enhance the understanding of the mechanisms of severe convective weather at the meso-γ and microscales. Physical-informed artificial intelligence (AI) models, as well as large scale AI models should be developed for nowcasting to continuously improve the monitoring and nowcasting capabilities, leading to the full utilization of forecasters' comprehensive judgment role and enhancing their ability to predict extreme weather.

     

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