强对流天气客观临近预报技术进展和展望

Objective nowcasting of severe convective weather:Technological progress and outlook

  • 摘要: 总结了强对流天气监测和临近预报技术以及临近预报系统进展,重点回顾了综合多源资料应用深度学习方法的监测和临近预报技术进展,指出了面临的挑战和未来展望。近年来,基于双偏振天气雷达、静止气象卫星等多源观测资料,利用结构特征识别统计、模糊逻辑、深度学习等技术的强对流天气类型和强度、对流初生、对流风暴单体的识别追踪等监测能力进一步提升。应用深度学习和深度生成模型的技术方法显著提升了强对流天气临近预报的准确率和预报时效。中国气象局SWAN 3.0系统性能显著提升,得到广泛业务应用。未来,需要充分利用百米级精细观测和数值预报资料,加深强对流天气γ中尺度和小尺度等机理的认识,综合应用机理规律和深度学习等多种技术方法,发展临近预报大模型,持续提升分类型、分强度的强对流天气精密监测和精准临近预警技术水平,充分发挥预报员的复杂智慧综合研判作用和提升对极端强天气的预报能力等。

     

    Abstract: This article reviews advances in monitoring and nowcasting of severe convective weather (SCW), along with developments in operational nowcasting systems. It focuses on deep learning (DL)-based techniques using multisource data, highlighting associated challenges and opportunities. Based on multisource observations including those from dual-polarization weather radars and geostationary satellites, the monitoring capabilities of SCW types and intensities, convective initiation, and identification and tracking of convective storm cells have been significantly improved using advanced technologies, including storm structural feature recognition, fuzzy logic, and DL. Among these approaches, deep generative models have proven particularly effective, substantially improving the accuracy and extending the lead time of SCW nowcasting. The performance of the China Meteorological Administration's Severe Weather Analysis and Forecasting (SWAN) 3.0 system continues to advance, with widespread operational adoption across China. Future efforts will leverage higher-resolution observations and numerical weather prediction products at the hundred-meter resolution to enhance the understanding of the underlying mechanisms of SCW development at meso-γ- and microscales. Current purely data-driven AI models are transitioning toward physics-informed frameworks for SCW nowcasting. Integrating forecasters' operational expertise with state-of-the-art AI technology will further enhance operational capabilities in monitoring and nowcasting extreme SCW events.

     

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