中尺度对流系统:从年际年代际变率到气候响应

Mesoscale Convective System:From Interannual and Decadal Variability to Climatic Responses

  • 摘要: 中尺度对流系统(MCS)是由多个对流系统组成的云系,其降水水平空间尺度介于雷暴单体与温带气旋之间,时间尺度通常为数小时或更久,频繁引发高影响、致灾性强的天气事件。受到青藏高原、东亚季风等地理和气候系统影响,中国的MCS展现出独特的时、空分布特征,对中国水资源、暴雨及洪涝灾害产生重大影响。MCS的研究对于提升天气预报精确度等气象防灾、减灾和应对极端天气等适应气候变化具有重要的科学意义和实际价值。文中系统回顾了中国学者在MCS的变率和气候响应领域的重要成果和进展。自20世纪60年代中国开始对MCS进行观测试验以来,随着观测技术的进步,对MCS的统计分析和发生发展机制的研究已从单一案例和短期统计分析,发展到对多区域、长时间尺度的精细特征和机理的深入探讨。在此基础上,中国的气象工作者对MCS的时、空变率进行了大量分析,并将MCS的发生、发展与背景条件相结合,取得了一系列关于MCS长期变异性统计分析和机理研究的重要成果。文中从中国不同区域MCS的年际和年代际时、空分布特征及其对降水变率的贡献,以及气候长期变率对MCS的调控机制两方面回顾了MCS的年际和年代际变率的相关研究。对于全球变暖背景下MCS的响应这一热点和前沿问题,文中回顾了气候变化对MCS频率和强度的影响的观测和机理研究,并探讨了气溶胶排放和城市化等人类活动对MCS的影响。最后,文中对MCS未来可能的研究发展方向进行了探讨和展望。

     

    Abstract: A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is a cloud system composed of multiple convective systems. Its horizontal precipitation scale falls between that of individual thunderstorms and mid-latitude cyclones, with a temporal scale usually lasting several hours or more. MCSs are often associated with severe high-impact weather events. Influenced by systems like the Qing-Zang plateau and the East Asian monsoon, MCSs in China exhibit many unique characteristics, significantly affecting regional hydrological cycle, heavy rainfall events, and flooding disasters in China. Research on MCSs holds considerable scientific significance and practical value, playing a crucial role in improving weather forecasting capabilities. This paper reviews the research achievements and progresses made by Chinese scholars in the field of MCSs’ variability and climate responses. With the advent of MCS observational studies in China since the 1960s, research has advanced from case-specific and short-term analyses to comprehensive examinations of multi-regional and long-term characteristics and mechanisms of MCS. Chinese meteorologists have extensively analyzed the spatial and temporal variabilities of MCS, linking them to background conditions to obtain significant insights into MCSs’ long-term variability and mechanisms. This paper introduces relative studies on interannual and decadal variabilities of MCS across different regions in China, and the regulatory effect of climate on MCS on these timescales. This paper also reviews researches about the responses of MCS to global warming, including the influences of climate change on MCS frequency and intensity and the effects of human activities, i.e., aerosol emissions and urbanization. This paper concludes with a discussion of potential future research on MCS.

     

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